TCU vs. Kansas State prediction: College basketball odds, pick

The Kansas State Wildcats need a win on Saturday.

After starting the year with a 14-4 record, they have lost four of their past five games and are sinking deeper and deeper into the bubble.

Jerome Tan and his friends are officially fighting for their lives on the run, and if they lose here, the dagger will be thrust into them.

So I’m betting on the Wildcats’ best effort and Tan’s best game plan against a TCU team that was full of disappointments after a comfortable home win over lowly West Virginia.

TCU vs. Kansas State odds

(via FanDuel)

TCU vs. Kansas State Candidates

(12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Kansas State has two key advantages against TCU on Saturday.

First, the Wildcats play like a top-15 defense, leading all Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage (45%) during conference play.

Particularly effective at defending the rim and preventing transition buckets.

This is critical against TCU’s up-tempo rim-running offense.

The Horned Frogs lead the nation in fast break points per game (20) and rank in the 95th percentile of DI teams in paint points per game (38).

But they have a fast-break attack against a Kansas State team that ranks above the 70th percentile in transition allowed PPP (.98) and at-the-rim allowed PPP (1.04).

Behind rim-protecting big men Will McNair (6.6% block rate) and David Nguessan (3.2% block rate), the Wildcats stand tall and make easy baskets against the most easy-basket dependent offense in the country. can be prevented.

Second, the Wildcats have a monster rest advantage against TCU.

Kansas State hasn’t played since losing to BYU last Saturday, but TCU won on Monday.

For a mastermind like Tan and a relatively thin roster (325th in bench minutes), the extra two days of rest and preparation will be most important.

Additionally, the Octagon of Doom offers a unique home court advantage.

Since Tang took over in Manhattan last year, the Wildcats are 16-7 at home, covering 70% of their games by an average of three points.

Kansas State boasts a +11 net rating at home this year, compared to a -3 on the road. The home crowd fuels this team.

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I’m worried about Kansas State’s offense in this matchup.

While the Wildcats are a 3-point-heavy offense and struggle with ball-handling issues, the Horned Frogs force turnovers and defend the 3-point line better than nearly every college basketball defense.

However, TCU is a little more vulnerable to off-ball screeners (.93 PPP allowed, 11th percentile), and Kansas State uses these sets heavily with relatively reliable efficiency (.98 PPP allowed, 67th percentile). We’re trying to fill a hole in the talented Tyler Perry. -Cam Carter-Artula Karma’s Wing Trio.

If Kansas State’s wings can move into action in the secondary, the Wildcats’ defense should lead them to a home-court victory in a desperate must-win scenario.

I’m sure it will.

TCU vs. Kansas State Candidates

Kansas State ML