President Vladimir Putin appeared in an uncharacteristically festive mood on Friday, praising factory workers and joking with state reporters and smiling at an industrial factory in the Ural city of Chelyabinsk.
Putin’s confidence was unmistakable, an expression of his complete belief that while outperforming Ukraine on the battlefield, he would spare his biggest critic that day in prison.
The world may never know exactly what happened on the day Alexei Navalny died in a remote prison high above the Arctic Circle. As of Sunday, his family had not yet been allowed to even see the body.
Navalny has endured the worst excesses of Russia’s prison system for years. The country’s penal colonies are known for their harsh conditions, and opposition leaders have been accused of particularly brutal treatment.
Whatever the circumstances of his death, years of abuse support the widespread view among his supporters that the Kremlin was to blame.
“Putin killed Alexei Navalny,” said Georgy Albulov, an ally of Mr. Navalny and a researcher at his anti-corruption foundation. “How exactly he did it will definitely be exposed.”
Western leaders similarly echoed Arbulov’s views, placing the blame for Navalny’s death squarely at the feet of Putin. “Make no mistake: President Putin is responsible for Mr. Navalny’s death. The blame lies with President Putin,” US President Joe Biden said.
But these statements are likely to be met with a Kremlin shrug at best.
Putin, who is already wanted following an International Criminal Court ruling on charges of overseeing the abduction of Ukrainians, has long stopped seeking Western recognition. As the Kremlin watches, President Putin is in his driver’s seat.
Mr. Navalny’s death dealt a devastating blow to his already suppressed opposition.
His control over domestic politics now appears to be complete. After next month’s elections, he will serve as president for another six years, a term that could exceed even that of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. President Putin has been in power for the past 24 years, while Stalin died in 1953 after ruling for 29 years.
As the second anniversary of Putin’s invasion approaches, Ukraine has been deprived of vital aid and morale is cracking.
On Saturday, Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from Avdiivka, a key frontline city in Ukraine, a decision that dealt a military blow to Kiev and firmly handed control of the war to President Putin.
In the long term, there is a real chance that Donald Trump, who has not yet commented on Navalny’s death, will become the next US president, which could give Putin carte blanche in Ukraine and other countries. be.
Western plans to isolate President Putin and his country, ostracize him and impose global sanctions that cripple Russia’s economy have not produced the desired results.
Putin has cultivated new allies and courted the Global South, receiving warm welcomes in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, once staunch allies of the West.
Biden was quick to acknowledge on Friday that it would be difficult to deliver the “catastrophic” outcome to Russia promised in 2021 after Navalny’s death. “We’re thinking about what else we can do,” Biden said. .
This hesitation is likely to further boost Putin’s confidence. “The more immunity Putin has, the more aggressive he will inevitably become,” said Boris Bondarev, a former senior Russian diplomat who defected from the Kremlin after the start of the 2022 war.
“After crushing the domestic opposition, he will focus on those who dare to speak abroad,” Bondarev warned.
This mood appears to be spreading to Putin’s allies as well. “Russia does not owe anyone. Let’s start from there,” wrote Margarita Simonyan, director of state broadcaster RT, commenting on NATO’s statement that Putin “has serious questions to answer.” About Navalny’s death.
Simonyan appeared unfazed by the situation, going on to say that five “victims” of Navalny’s anti-corruption investigation had already called her to congratulate him on his death. Ta.
After his murder, many fear what will happen next. “With no means to check his ability to make fatal mistakes, the old Russian ruler, surrounded by sycophants, may embark on the most reckless actions ever seen in the coming years.” I have written Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center, said:
Famous Russian sociologist Greg Yudin say it more harshly: “In Russia, we often say that it’s darkest before dawn. I think that’s true, but we still don’t know much about real darkness. It seems like it’s just starting to get dark. It’s gone.”
