Polymarket gives former President Donald Trump a 93% chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee, and as of Monday afternoon predicted he would defeat President Joe Biden in their general election matchup.
polymarket, I will explain itself the “world’s largest prediction market,” it shows that there is a 93 percent chance that Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee.
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, who declined Sunday to say whether she would support Trump if he were the Republican nominee, has just a 4% chance of being the nominee. Another 2% are in the “other” category, while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (both Trump supporters) each have a 1% chance.
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Prediction markets, on the other hand, give Biden a lower chance of becoming the party’s nominee than Trump, at 78%. The prediction assigns an 8% chance to California Governor Gavin Newsom, 7% to Michelle Obama, 4% to Vice President Kamala Harris, and 2% to “other.”
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Overall, Polymarket notes that there is a 78 percent chance of a Trump-Biden rematch, but there is a 27 percent chance that Biden will withdraw from the presidential race.
In the 2024 general election scenario, Trump has a 54% chance of winning, compared to 33% for Biden. Another 6% will go to Michelle Obama, 3% to Newsom and 2% to independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The prediction comes as Trump moves on to South Carolina, the next state in the Republican primary, where polls show Trump leading Haley by a double-digit margin. Additionally, recent polls show Trump leading Biden not only nationally but also in key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
