Houston finally took sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings with a blowout win at home against Iowa State on Monday, winning by eight points despite a barrage of 9-of-17 (53%) 3-pointers from the Cyclones. I got it back.
The Cougars travel to Waco on Saturday, which is always a tough place to play.
And things could get even tougher considering Baylor University is bouncing back from a road loss to BYU.
But I don’t like this matchup for the Bears.
Houston vs. Baylor Prediction
(Noon ET, CBS)
Houston’s aggressive ball-screen blitzing and rim-discrimination defense are the best in the nation, and the Cougars hold firm against Baylor’s relentless ball-screen attack, spearheaded by an elite backcourt of Jacoby Watler and Ray J. Dennis. I will stand up.
But the way to beat Kelvin Sampson’s defense is through elite spacing and shot-making. The Cougars are very aggressive on the ball, which makes them vulnerable to weakside shooters. Having two ball handlers forces the rest of the defense to scramble.
In theory, Baylor could exploit that vulnerability. The Bears spread the floor wide and pride themselves on a lack of sharpshooters, which explains his 3-point shooting clip of 40%, which ranks among the top in the nation.
However, no team has shot more than 40% from deep over an entire 30-game season. Baylor shot 47% from 3-point range in non-conference play, but the regression was a serious blow to Big 12 play as the Bears shot just 34% in 13 games.
College hoops is all about shot inconsistency, but I’m concerned about Baylor University’s underlying shooting metrics. Among Big 12 teams in league play, the Bears rank him ninth in ShotQuality’s spacing metric and 12th in open 3 rate.
The Bears aren’t generating open shots from off-ball player movement and won’t be generating any on-ball screen offense against Houston’s dominant on-ball defense.
I expect the Bears offense to struggle on Saturday.
To make matters worse, Baylor’s best shooter, sixth man Langston Love, is dealing with a foot injury. He returned to action against BYU, but played just 13 minutes and was a poor match against the Cougs, shooting 49 percent from 3-point range.
Baylor’s defense, on the other hand, regressed significantly in 2024. Scott Drew made it to the National Championship using a no-middle defense scheme. Defenders denied paint buckets by overhelping in the middle of the court while pushing the ball handler toward the sideline or baseline.
However, the Bears’ backcourt defense is terrible. Walter is a decent defender, but Dennis, Love, and Jayden Nunn are borderline on-ball defenders.
Therefore, opponents killed the Bears with on-ball dribble breakthroughs and creating ball screens because Baylor couldn’t run a no-middle at the point of attack.
Houston relies heavily on the versatile Jamal Shehead with a pick-and-roll heavy offense. Baylor is allowing over .84 PPP against pick-and-roll ball handlers (24th percentile), and I predict they’ll take advantage of it aggressively in matchups with Shihead Hunt.
At the end of the day, I don’t like Baylor’s schematic matchup.
And even if the Bears were at home, they had to travel a lot this week, playing in Morgantown, West Virginia, on Saturday, Provo, Utah, on Tuesday, and then Texas for Saturday’s game. I plan on returning to Waco. The total journey is about 3,000 miles.
Houston, on the other hand, has a rest advantage as they played on Big Monday this week.
I’m confident the fresh-faced Cougars will take advantage of their matchup advantage and cover with a big road win on Saturday.
Houston vs. Baylor picks
Houston -2.5 (-114, Bet Rivers)
