Haley looks to beat expectations against Trump in Virginia

Nikki Haley is making a final effort in the Virginia Republican primary, hoping to win a significant number of delegates or a state where demographics suggest her message might resonate. are doing.

Haley will need to do well in northern Virginia, where suburban voters outside of Washington, D.C., could offset former President Trump’s strength in the southern part of the state.

But Haley’s campaign has signaled that she expects a strong night in Virginia, despite questions about whether she will continue to challenge Trump beyond Super Tuesday. ing.

“It’s a politically and demographically favorable state for her,” said Tucker Martin, a Virginia-based Republican strategist. “It’s highly educated people. There’s a lot of traditional Republicans here.”

But with Trump controlling the Republican Party in Virginia and beyond, Haley faces the same dilemma she faces elsewhere.

A Roanoke College poll released Friday showed Haley leading President Biden 49% to 40% in a hypothetical general election matchup. But the same poll showed Trump with a significant lead over Haley among Republicans in the state. Seventy-five percent of self-identified Republicans said they supported Trump, and 15% said the same about Haley. Trump holds a similar lead over Haley in Virginia, 78% to 19%, according to an average of Hills Decision Desk polls.

“If she were a general election candidate, Virginia is the state I think she would win,” Martin said. “The issue is we’re not talking about a Tuesday in November, we’re talking about a Tuesday in March, and that’s going to be up to the voters who participate.”

“This is the endless Republican irony of this era,” Martin said.

Despite trailing Trump in polls, Haley’s campaign is still touting momentum heading into Super Tuesday. On Friday, her campaign announced it had raised $12 million in February.

The big question hanging over Virginia on Tuesday is which voters will vote. The federal government holds open primaries, and Democrats and independents could theoretically participate in the Republican primary. But on Tuesday, Democrats will also hold their own presidential primary in Virginia, where Biden is expected to win by a landslide.

And while northern Virginia and the greater Richmond area have educated suburban voters, Trump’s stronghold west of Charlottesville has also proven to be a significant force in the state. Strategists say it was Trump’s rural base that led Gov. Glenn Youngkin (Republican) to victory in 2021.

“It’s kind of a myth [Youngkin] It worked well in the suburbs,” said Bob Holdsworth, a veteran political analyst in Virginia. “He won Trump country.”

With a showdown between Trump and Biden looking increasingly inevitable, questions remain about how many voters will be motivated enough to cast their ballots on Tuesday in March.

“I think intensity is really important in low turnout elections,” Martin said. “One thing we know about President Trump voters is that they are very motivated. They strongly support the former president, and I predict they will vote. ing.”

President Trump is scheduled to visit Richmond on Saturday for a get-out-the-vote rally in preparation for Tuesday’s election. Meanwhile, Haley went on a tour of the state on Thursday, making stops in Richmond and the Washington, D.C., suburb of Falls Church.

While campaigning outside the nation’s capital, Haley addressed reproductive rights issues that have vexed Republicans across the country, particularly in Virginia.

“I know there’s been a lot of conversation about abortion in Virginia,” Haley told the Falls Church crowd. “We need to stop demonizing this issue and humanize it.”

Hailey also addressed the ongoing national debate surrounding in vitro fertilization (IVF) and spoke about her own experience with infertility treatment. Haley faced backlash last week for saying that a fetus is a child following an Alabama Supreme Court ruling on the issue, but later clarified his statement.

At the same event in Falls Church, Haley supporters packed into the Westin hotel ballroom to hear the presidential candidate speak. Her campaign says more than 1,000 people participated.

“For some reason, she’s a strong alternative — and I pray every night — because President Trump is the one to blame,” said Ed Lintz, a Haley supporter from Northern Virginia who attended Thursday’s rally. It’s either or not.” “If she can prove she can generate enthusiasm, the party will say, ‘We have a good alternative.'”

Barbara Knight, another Northern Virginia Haley supporter who attended the rally, echoed that point.

“If she wants to stay there after Super Tuesday, I’m fine with that,” Knight said. “I’m telling you, anything can happen and we need someone ready and waiting in the wings.”

But when asked Tuesday if Haley could win her home state, Virginia supporters said they weren’t betting on it.

“God, I hope so,” Knight said. “I hope she does well, that’s all. It could be 20% or 30%, but I’m happy.”

Michael Govan, another Haley supporter in attendance Thursday, was less convinced.

“I don’t know. Not really,” Govan said. However, Haley said that her rationale for remaining in the race does not necessarily mean that she would wait in a scenario where Trump is unable to run.

“Her heart is in the right place,” he said. “She wants to make this country better. She sees a lot of bad things happening here, both domestically and internationally, and she thinks she can make a difference.”

“And I believe that too,” he added.