Republican presidential primary polls were largely on track for Super Tuesday, with the exception of Vermont, where former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley pulled off a surprise upset.
Some states also had inaccurate estimates of margin size. Still, pollsters had correct results in many states that voted for Republicans on Tuesday.
Voters enter the polls for the state primary on March 5, 2024 in Mountain Brook, Alabama. (Ilya Nouberge/Getty Images)
Alabama
As of Wednesday afternoon, Alabama reported 95% turnout. new york times election results Indicated Trump led Haley, who suspended her campaign on Wednesday, about 83% to 13%, a 70-point difference.
The Morning Consult poll, Alabama’s last poll before the primary, found that President Trump take the lead 87 percent to 12 percent, a difference of 75 points. This survey was part of the broader Morning Consult Super Tuesday polling project, which is referenced throughout this article.Voted From January 23rd to February 5th, there were 208 registered voters in each state. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 to 7 percentage points,” Breitbart News’ John Nolte previously noted.
The poll is also fairly accurate in North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas, and appears to be spot on in California, although many of the results have yet to be processed in California.
north carolina
Polls show Trump leading Haley in the Tar Heel State, 77% to 23%, with the 45th president winning by a similar number.of new york times election results Indicated As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump had an approval rating of 74%, Haley’s approval rating was 23%, and less than 5% of the vote remained.
According to a High Point University poll, published The March 1 results were also fairly accurate. A poll of 394 likely Republican primary voters conducted between February 16 and February 23 found Trump with 69% of the votes and Haley with 24%.
oklahoma
with a vote rate of over 95% summarized in a tableAccording to the paper, Trump won 82% of the vote, with 16% supporting Haley, a 66-point difference. times. The Morning Consult poll was similar to the actual results, but with a slightly larger difference between the candidates. Trump got 88%, Haley 11%.Morning consultation did The only poll in Oklahoma, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tally.
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks at the Super Tuesday election night party at Mar-a-Lago on March 5, 2024 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Rebecca Blackwell/Associated Press)
tennessee
In Tennessee, Trump received 77% approval and 95% of the vote. report, about 57 points higher than Haley, who had 20 percent. Morning Consult had 81% for Trump and 18% for Haley, a 63-point difference, which was very close to the actual result. This was the only Republican primary poll conducted in Tennessee. concentrated According to FiveThirtyEight, it’s a direct showdown between Haley and Trump.
Texas
In February, Morning Consult showed Trump leading Texas by 69 points. As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump held a 61-point lead with 93% of the state vote, 78% to Haley’s 17%. times Indicated.
The University of Texas at Tyler Public Opinion Research Center’s previous poll, which surveyed 522 likely voters between February 16 and February 26, appeared to be all but settled.That poll had Trump led Haley 75% to 17%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8%.
California
In California, Trump won 78.6% of the vote and Haley 17.9%, but only 49% of the vote. summarized in a tableper times. If this trend holds, his morning consults in Golden State will be very accurate. Super Tuesday polls show Trump leading Haley 83% to 16%.
Virginia
With over 95% of the votes counted, Trump guided In Virginia, Haley is 63% to 35%, according to the poll. times. Mr. Trump’s 28-point lead is impressive, but it fell short of the 78%-19% lead against the former governor shown in a Morning Consult poll of 59%.
The Roanoke College poll sampled likely Republican primary voters from February 11th to 19th. found Trump’s lead was fairly slim, 51% to 43%. Both polling organizations accurately predicted Trump’s victory, but the results were somewhere in the middle of those polls.
Voters head to the polls for the Super Tuesday election at the Great Falls Public Library on March 5, 2024 in Great Falls, Virginia. (Jahi Chikwendu/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Massachusetts
playing cards guided As of Wednesday morning, Haley had a 23-point lead in Massachusetts with 91% of the vote, compared to 60% and 37%, respectively. times. A Morning Consult poll shows Trump leading in blue states with 69% to Haley’s 28%, a 41-point lead.
Suffolk University poll carried out Of the 287 likely voters, February 2nd to 5th was more accurate. The poll found Trump leading 55% to 38%. The margin of error was ±5.8 percent.
maine
As of Wednesday morning, President Trump was With 92% of the vote counted, Maine’s Haley had a 47-point lead, 73% to 26%. The University of New Hampshire (UNH) Research Center poll was conducted February 15-19. had Mr. Trump received 77% of the vote and Ms. Haley received 19%, a difference of 58 points, not far from Mr. Trump’s actual lead. The poll sampled 267 likely Republican voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
The Pan Atlantic Research poll was conducted February 6-14. had Trump had a 42-point lead over Haley, which was closer than UNH expected.
minnesota
The only Minnesota poll relevant to the Trump vs. Haley picture – conducted by SurveyUSA and sponsored by KSTP, KAAL, and WDIO – Indicated Trump defeated Haley by 64 points (79% to 14%). This was not as accurate as other polls in other Super Tuesday states. Trump still beat Haley, but by a 40-point margin.he was there first Wednesday was 69%, she was 29%, and 95% was reported.
Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign event at Lake House in Fort Mill, South Carolina, on February 18, 2024. (Alison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images)
vermont state
Then there’s Vermont, the only state Haley won through a bizarre campaign.Haley led 50% to 46%, winning nearly all the votes. summarized in a table Wednesday. The only Trump vs. Haley poll, from the Green Mountain State carried out In a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire from February 15 to 19, Trump beat Haley 61% to 31%. The inaccurate poll sampled 309 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
In particular, Vermont has open primaries, meaning voters can vote in any primary of their choice. In other words, liberals can vote in Republican primaries and conservatives can vote in Democratic primaries.
According to data from FiveThirtyEight, there were no relevant polls for a head-to-head contest between Trump and Haley in the other four Republican Super Tuesday states: Utah, Alaska, Arkansas and Colorado.
