With the announcement that Kirk Cousins would be joining the Atlanta Falcons, the Vikings were forced to make an impossible decision. While his departure was expected in the near future, Minnesota didn’t expect it to end this soon. This leaves the team without a starting quarterback, fewer options on the market, and a draft position with no certainty of finding a prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Sam Darnold appears, a one-year rental whose sole purpose is to steady the ship while the organization considers its next steps. The reality is that 2024 quickly went from a year that was supposed to be a return to the playoffs to a complete nightmare for Vikings fans. There were very real concerns about whether Justin Jefferson, the league’s best wide receiver, would be able to withstand this rebuild at his position.
I know Sam Darnold’s game well. As a Panthers fan, I watched him play under center for a year and a half and arrived in Carolina with much the same promise that this team might be able to “fix” him. Let’s take a look at what Darnold’s time in Carolina has taught us and if there’s anything Vikings fans can look forward to.
Who is Sam Darnold as a player?
Physically, we’re talking about someone who has all the tools. This has been present since he was drafted in 2018. Darnold has decent size, underrated athleticism, and an NFL-caliber arm that makes just about every pitch you’d want to see on a regular basis.
The biggest problem is consistency. In fact, Darnold may be one of the most inconsistent starting quarterbacks I’ve ever played with in Carolina. He constantly oscillates between pitching at an All-Pro level and looking like he’s forgotten how to play at his next position.
It’s not a lack of confidence, but rather a pervasive fear of pressure. Darnold’s infamous “I see ghosts” line in New York still exists to this day. If the pocket is clean and he feels comfortable, he can throw, but he doesn’t just throw against pressure. recognized Pressure — that’s a huge problem.
Darnold was in real danger of being hit and couldn’t differentiate between when he needed to get the ball and when he needed to get the ball. saw It felt like I was about to be taken down. This caused Darnold to give up too many plays or release the ball too early, leaving yards on the field as a result.
When Darnold returned to a starting role in 2022, he returned behind a much better Panthers offensive line. That’s why his numbers have skyrocketed and he’s been able to find a rhythm. Still, there remains a pervasive and constant problem with Darnold mishandling pressure, and when this starts he tends to get in over his head and get stuck in a vicious cycle.
Sam Darnold, Inside the Numbers
Now, the question is, “Where will Sam Darnold win?” This is actually an area where he would be a good fit for the Vikings. As a quarterback, he’s probably been instilled with mistrust since his time in New York. As a result, he doesn’t lead receivers particularly well or throw passes he doesn’t intend. feel You will win.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are both great at getting separation early on the break. This is huge for Darnold under center. Because he likes to have the security blanket of knowing that the window is open before he releases the ball.
When he’s convinced of that, he can actually become a very good quarterback. DJ Moore was good to leave early in 2022, and Darnold’s relationship with Moore was one of the only bright spots on the Panthers’ offense that year. If he’s that level of safety, he’ll have no problem getting the ball downfield, and his 2022 projected air yards of 7.9 that season were well above league average.
On the flip side, he was incredibly well protected. Darnold was under pressure on only 20.2 percent of his snaps in 2022, which is surprisingly low for a struggling team. By comparison, Bryce Young was under pressure on 24.2 percent down under the Panthers’ crumbling system in 2023.
Darnold has been at his best in playoff play action. His split in Carolina in 2022 was notable in this regard.
- Play-Action Passes: 45/52 (86%), 414 yards (8.0 yards per attempt)
- Traditional dropback and RPO: 37/88 (42%), 729 yards (8.2 yards per attempt)
If the Vikings can establish the run with Aaron Jones and his rushing threat can lead defenses to a safety in the box, the team can run play-action and Darnold will be most comfortable.
Darnold is an incredible serial passer, so don’t fall for the hype
Darnold’s performance may be out of this world at times, but it’s fool’s gold. His tenure in Carolina taught fans this the hard way. After the 2021 trade, he came out of the gate looking like a Pro Bowl quarterback. His four-game winning streak to start the season led fans to believe the team had escaped the hapless Jets and acquired a soon-to-be top quarterback.
99/146 (67%), 1,189 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT — Passer Rating 95.38
Then everything fell apart. Those early games were a product of a lack of pressure, not quarterback skill. Darnold finished the season with nine touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a 71.9 passer rating.
The caveat is that even if Darnold comes out of the gate healthy, don’t fall into the trap of thinking he’s a changed QB. That’s because his DNA as a passer remains as someone who doesn’t handle adversity well during games.
What is the limit for Darnold’s Vikings?
That’s a big question mark. If this team can protect him and the run game is a threat, there’s no reason to believe this team can’t win games. The problem is that he misses a lot of throws that Kirk Cousins could have made, which slows down his offense.
There’s a lot of pressure on Brian Flores to devise a defense to keep Minnesota in good position. Darnold is not a quarterback who can get him back in the game or thrive in obvious passing scenarios. He needs to be treated with kid gloves and will be able to play at that point.
Darnold is neither a good quarterback nor a bad quarterback. He just is. If you can insulate him, you’ll be successful, but don’t think about that at all. this There will come a time when he will turn everything around.
Ultimately, the expectation is a long season in Minnesota, punctuated by small joys.
