Upsets are always a big part of the NCAA Tournament. And when it comes to upsets and the 2024 NCAA Tournament, there could be a number of healthy numbers of first-round scares.
Between another comparable season, the committee mixing up multiple seeds, and the added coronavirus year experience factor, the NCAA Tournament looks as open as ever in the first round. It looks like
Here are six first-round matchups to keep an eye on when picking a first-round upset. For the purpose of this preview, an upset is defined as a first-round win by a team seeded 11th or higher.
No. 6 South Carolina vs. No. 11 Oregon, Thursday, 4 p.m.
Despite the seeding disparity and Oregon State only entering the field as a bid thief, these two teams are very evenly matched. Even though the Ducks are languishing in the mediocre Pac-12, they’re still an incredibly dangerous team this March. Oregon State has advanced to at least the round of 32 in each of Dana Altman’s previous seven tournament appearances, including the 2019 Sweet 16, when she entered as a No. 12 seed in a similar situation.
In addition to having tactical history on their side, Oregon State has big man N’falee Dante, giving them an inside advantage. Dante’s impressive growth late in the season made Oregon difficult to stop inside, but South Carolina has struggled at times this season.
The University of South Carolina went from being picked last in the SEC preseason to being a legitimate top-25 team all year long. The Siamcocks have road wins over Tennessee, Texas A&M and Mississippi State this season, and won’t be afraid of strong opponents. But an Oregon team that peaked at the perfect time is ripe for an upset in what should be a close game.
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 McNeese State, Thursday, 7:25 p.m.
It will be difficult for Gonzaga University, which some are calling for an upset, to be eliminated in the first round for the first time since 2008.
However, McNeese State is an attractive candidate under Will Wade. The former LSU coach has reloaded this program with his athleticism and fiery attitude, with a roster featuring many defenders. He established a 30-3 record with double-digit road wins over VCU, UAB and Michigan in non-conference play.
The Cowboys rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive turnover rate (6th) and 3-point percentage (7th at 39.7 percent). If the Cowboys can force Gonzaga into turnovers and start hitting threes, they have a blueprint for a big upset.
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 North Carolina State, Thursday, 9:40 p.m.
It’s hard not to ride North Carolina State’s incredible ACC Tournament run with five wins in five days. However, thanks to the strong play of juniors DJ Horn and DJ Burns, the Wolfpack will continue to enter tournaments freely and easily.
NC State, a dangerous team that qualified with wins over Duke, Virginia and North Carolina, needs Mohamed Diala to continue to step up his game on both ends like he did in Washington, D.C. It is said that
Texas Tech is rock solid thanks to its balanced scoring and numerous talented perimeter threats. However, NC State’s lower seed makes this feel more like a power conference matchup than his typical 6-on-11 matchup.
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 New Mexico, Friday, 3:10 p.m.
Although the committee declared New Mexico State a bid thief for winning the Mountain West title, many in the sports community believed that New Mexico State was a capable team in the tournament. Despite their low chances of seeding, the Lobos are favored as the No. 11 seed in many places.
A big reason for that is the explosive backcourt of Jalen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. New Mexico State entered the week with a lot of confidence, coming off three convincing wins in three days against NCAA Tournament teams from the Mountain West.
Clemson lost three of its four teams in the ACC tournament, including a crushing loss to Boston College. The Tigers haven’t beaten a team in this 2024 tournament field since early February.
New Mexico’s offense should be able to attack Clemson’s defense, which forces turnovers at a high rate without applying pressure.
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 James Madison, Friday, 9:40 p.m.
James Madison has been a mainstay in the middle since the season-opening overtime win over Michigan State in East Lansing. The balanced offense features nearly four double-digit scoring options, led by Terrence Edwards Jr., and numerous perimeter shooting threats.
Wisconsin struggled late in the season, losing eight of 11 Big Ten games before the title game in the conference tournament, including a notable win over Purdue. AJ Storr gives the Badgers an athletic wing off the dribble and handles the scoring.
This matchup could very well lead to a 3-point shot. James Madison ranks second in the nation in three-point defense (28 percent), while Wisconsin ranks 345th in the nation (37.1 percent). When the Dukes effectively space the floor in four different positions, as they have at times this season, that could be a problem for Wisconsin’s troubled perimeter defense.
No. 5 St. Mary’s vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon, Friday, 10:05 p.m.
The first round ends with another potential 5/12 upset in the evening slot. Grand Canyon is a dangerous 29-win team with a history of winning NCAA tournaments in the past. Head coach Bryce Drew has a real stud in wing Tyon Grant-Foster, and Lopez has plenty of talented players around him.
Keeping St. Mary’s off the offensive glass could give Grand Canyon a chance to make things interesting. The Gaels’ offense is above average if they aren’t ironing out their mistakes. If they get ahead, Grand Canyon is used to that environment as they are among the top five in the nation in getting to the foul line.
