Kansas State is lucky to be here.
The Jayhawks got a lucky decision at the end of the game against Sanford. AJ Staton-McRae hits Nicholas Timberlake with an all-ball.
With less than 20 seconds left, the Bulldogs were close to trailing by one point.
It’s tragic.
But more pertinent to this game, Kansas looked exhausted after 40 minutes of battling Buckyball’s full-court press.
The Jayhawks rank 317th nationally in bench minutes and are missing a key starter, leading scorer Kevin McCuller.
Gonzaga vs. Kansas State odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
| gonzaga | -3.5 (-120) | -178 | o151.5 (-110) |
| Kansas | +3.5 (-102) | +146 | u151.5 (-110) |
(Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook)
Gonzaga vs Kansas Prediction
(3:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
Given Kansas’ lack of depth and Thursday’s tough game, I expect the Zags to completely defeat the Jayhawks on Saturday.
The Zags are an up-tempo, rim-oriented offense.
The Bulldogs pick up the pace in transition, running dangerous two-man ball screen sets with Ryan Nembhard and Graham Icke. The latter uses pace to take advantage of position in post-upsets.
Kansas is good at defending these sets, but the Hawks are behind defenders in McCuller, who covers the second-most ball screens.
His length and athleticism work well when defending screens.
But most importantly, after 48 hours of an exhausting game with no depth, I don’t think the Jayhawks will stick with the Zags’ fast-break attack.
And the outlook for Kansas’ defense is even bleaker.
The Jayhawks have a rim-oriented offense that primarily uses big men Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCuller as rollers, cutters, and posters.
Behind Ike, the Bulldogs turned into a deadly inside defense.
They rank 8th nationally in post-up PPP percentage (.67), 11th in 2-point shooting percentage (45%) and top 90 in paint points per game (29).
The Bulldogs beat Gonzaga with a shot over the top, as they rank below 230th nationally in open 3 rate.
But the Jayhawks’ most significant problem is that they don’t have adequate floor spacers or shooters to complement Dickinson, Adams, and Dajuan Harris.
Kansas State ranks 300th in the nation in ShotQuality’s spacing metrics, 335th in 3-point percentage and 209th in 3-point shooting, allowing the defense to sag inside and ruin each set.
And McCuller’s departure has only made that problem worse.
The Zags should dominate the Hawks with their speed on offense and paint protection on defense, and should easily win this game and advance to the Sweet 16.
Gonzaga vs. Kansas Pick
Gonzaga -3.5 (-120) | Played to -4.5 (-110)
