Other than UConn, Houston looks like the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.
The Cougs defeated Stetson in the first round and dominated the Hatters with the nation’s best defense.
However, I truly believe that Texas A&M is the only team Houston would not want to play during this run of the NCAA Tournament.
The Aggies are on a roll and have a tough problem for Houston in the second round.
Texas A&M vs. Houston odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
| Texas A&M | +10 (-112) | +400 | o134 (-108) |
| houston | -10 (-108) | -535 | u134 (-112) |
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Texas A&M vs. Houston Prediction
(8:40 p.m. ET, TNT)
Texas A&M and Houston faced off in non-conference play.
Houston won, but it wasn’t easy.
The Cougars won by four points, but needed 11-of-27 (41%) 3-point shooting to win, and the Aggies were without Tyrese Radford.
If Radford played or if Houston made a few more threes, this matchup would be talked about in a different light.
It’s nearly impossible to take advantage of Houston’s aggressive ball screen blitz defense, but the Cougars are vulnerable in several areas.
First, the Cougars attack from the defensive end, sending two to the ball on every screen.
While they force a ton of turnovers, their style leaves them vulnerable on the boards, ranking 223rd in defensive rebounding percentage.
Texas A&M, on the other hand, is the nation’s best offensive rebounding team.
The Aggies’ 42% offensive rebounding percentage is one of the best-performing teams in a power conference in a single season in the KenPom era.
So, as expected, in non-conference head-to-head competition, Texas A&M scored 21 second-chance points on 17 offensive rebounds.
Second, the Cougars’ aggressive defense fouls often, as they rank below 300 nationally in free throw percentage.
Texas A&M is a rim-oriented offense with downhill drives, and the Aggies draw fouls at a rate that ranks in the top 50 nationally.
So, as expected, the Aggies generated 22 charity stripe attempts and completed 15 in the first matchup.
Texas A&M can win this game with just extras.
However, the Aggies could pull off an upset if they get some shots.
Houston’s aggressive ball-screen blitz defense relies on weak-side rotations for the Cougars to trap, making them vulnerable to crisp passes and weak-side shooters.
Texas A&M shoots.
The Aggies simply haven’t been able to shoot the ball all year.
The Aggies are shooting 29% from three this season, but ShotQuality projects they should hit 33% based on the “quality” of their attempts.
But they are finally starting to see positive regression in shooting.
The Aggies have shot 42% from 3-point range since March 6, including a win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament and a win over Nebraska in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, in five of six games during that span. won the match.
If the Aggies can stay hot from deep, they could have the horse to beat Houston on Sunday.
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Once again, the Cougars shot 41% from deep in Radford’s absence and won the head-to-head game by four points.
Radford is Texas A&M’s best isolation scorer, and avoiding ball screens completely and huddled on the hero ball is a great way to break through ball screen blitz defenses.
With Radford back on the team, the Aggies will be able to take advantage of Houston even more in isolation.
Additionally, since Radford returned to Texas A&M, Houston has lost Joseph Tagler and Ramon Walker to season-ending injuries, severely hampering the Cougars’ depth.
The Aggies played Houston in their last head-to-head matchup, and I fully believe they can win outright with Radford in the fold and Tugler out.
At least they’ll get enough offensive rebounds and generate enough free throws to stay within single digits for 40 minutes.
Texas A&M vs. Houston Pick
Texas A&M +10 | Play until +8
