Russia understands power, not peace

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, there is a growing belief among some international observers that Ukraine should: forced a ceasefire Together with Russia.They claim that this happened because of the war. entered into a stalemate.

Ukrainians are can’t win the war. Others are ceasefire Assuming Russia abides by the agreement, the conflict will be frozen. Finally, if an agreement is reached, save a life.

However, calls for a forced agreement between Ukraine and Russia are naive. First, they ignore the voices of Ukrainians. According to an independent opinion poll conducted by gallup, International Republican Association And that National Democratic Institutemost Ukrainian citizens believe that only a complete victory for Ukraine and the liberation of the Motherland from Russia will end the war.

Second, calls for peace negotiations ignore Russia’s history of violating ceasefires and international norms. In these instances, the Russian side ignores the terms of the agreement. Instead, they chose to ignore established norms and pursue policies favorable to Russian interests. There have been some recent examples of this.

During the collapse of the Soviet Union, 15 new republics were established. One of them was Moldova. As this Eastern European country became independent, concerns grew that Moldova would attempt to reunite with Romania. The Russian-speaking region of Transnistria is affected by the rise of Moldovan nationalism, declared It is said that it is trying to establish independence from Moldova.

collision Appeared 700 people were killed between the Moldovan government and Transnistria. Russia then intervened as a mediator, and a ceasefire was signed between the Moldovan government and Transnistria in July 1992. It was later reported that Russia would withdraw its troops from the area. After 32 years, Russia maintains a presence in Transnistria, in violation of ceasefire terms.

A similar thing happened in Georgia. During the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008, the Russian military invaded A similar situation occurred in Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions after skirmishes broke out between their respective armed forces and the Georgian army. Hundreds of people died in the war, and Georgia appealed to the international community for help in ending the war.

Eventually France intervened and helped Georgia reach a settlement with Russia. agreement Russia said it would withdraw from Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sixteen years later, Russian forces continue to occupy these two regions and show no signs of retreating.

The most recent example occurred when Russia first invaded Ukraine in April 2014. During this period, Russian troops appeared and occupied parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Subsequently, Ukraine launched operations to liberate these areas from Russian occupation.

A few months later, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe intervened and the Minsk Agreements were signed. The terms and conditions sought to establish “.peaceful solution” To the Donbass conflict. The article stated that the Russian Federation must withdraw its soldiers and military equipment from the area, and a ceasefire was implemented. However, Russia maintains a military presence and violated A ceasefire was repeated. By February 2022, the Russian Federation will declare that the Minsk agreements no longer serve their purpose; launched A full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

These examples in Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine suggest that Russia is not respecting ceasefire agreements and that its goal is not peace in the region. Rather, the Russian Federation is only exacerbating the chaos in these countries and using the ceasefire to gain an advantage.

In other words, Russia has decided that the rules don’t apply.

This is not something that started with President Vladimir Putin either. History shows that every time the Russian Federation enters into a ceasefire, it violates it and submits only to violence.

Take the Soviet Union for example. intrusion of Afghanistan. In December 1979, Soviet troops invaded the country to support the pro-Soviet government. For ten years, the Soviet Union faced fierce resistance from Afghan resistance forces. killed Approximately 15,000 Soviet soldiers. By 1988, these human and economic losses made the Soviet Union decision to withdraw.

In December 1994, the Russian government attempted to overthrow the Chechen government following attacks by local residents. toy with independence. For two years, the Russians tried to overthrow the Chechens and capture the capital, Grozny. Afterwards, they faced fierce resistance and were unable to establish firm control over the mountainous regions of Chechnya. Eventually, the Chechens regained the capital.thousands of Russians killed during the war, and That indecisive conclusion It immediately caused dissatisfaction among the Russian public. By 1997 they withdrew from the region and signed a peace agreement with the Chechens.

These historical examples suggest that Russia does not respect ceasefires brokered by the international community in Russian-initiated conflicts. Rather, Russia is seeking to find ways to undermine these agreements and undermine their effectiveness. The Russian Federation does not understand the word peace. It hears only power and power.

The lessons of Afghanistan and Chechnya show that only embarrassment and defeat will deter Russia from such an invasion of Ukraine. Russia will not respect any other outcome. Therefore, the international community must do everything in its power to help Ukraine win the war and defeat Russia. Only then will the conflict end.

mark temnicki is Certified freelance journalist Eurasian situation and non-resident At the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.