This NCAA Tournament has been covered by general favorites at historic rates.
If you can’t beat them…
Midwest Region: 5th Gonzaga (+5.5) 1st Purdue
It’s going to take more than the Grambling and Utah blowouts to make us forget the Purdue meltdown that happens every March.
The Boilermakers, whose final six games in the Big Ten were decided by single digits, had plenty of experience against top-tier teams during the regular season, but rarely won easily.
Nine of the 10 toughest games (against opponents seeded No. 5 or higher in the NCAA Tournament) were decided by eight points or less.
The exception was Gonzaga, which lost 73-63 at Hawaii earlier in the season after the Bulldogs made 6 of 32 3-pointers.
The Bulldogs have come a long way since then, and they recently proved it with a blowout win over Kansas.
And for the first time, Mark Few’s team can enjoy a tournament match where the weight of expectations and history is placed on their opponents.
South Region: No. 1 Houston (-3.5) vs. No. 4 Duke.
The Cougars have advanced to the Elite Eight in two of the past three tournaments and are making their fourth straight Sweet 16 appearance.
This veteran group deserves new respect for surviving Game 2 without the starting four in overtime and playing the full game until senior Jamal Shihed fouled out in the final minutes.
Duke has the talent to match, but not the toughness, experience, or leadership.
The Blue Devils’ instability was on display most recently against Vermont, and three other high-profile games (Arizona and North Carolina) all ended in losses.
Houston has been regularly tested in the Big 12, but Duke has just one win against a ranked team entering the tournament.
Midwest Region: No. 2 Tennessee (-3.5) vs. No. 3 Creighton.
Some see the Vols’ 3-of-25 3-pointers in a close win over Texas as evidence of an unreliable roster that will soon do more damage to Rick Barnes’ reputation.
But even when the offense was at its worst, the nation’s No. 3 defense stepped up and held the top-30 offense to 58 points.
All-American Dalton Knecht rebounds with a near lock.
Otherwise, Creighton will have a hard time creating space against a much more physical opponent.
Do you want to bet on college basketball?
Midwest Region: No. 11 North Carolina State (+6.5) beats No. 2 Market.
Shaka Smart advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since leading VCU in the Final Four in 2011.
A program and coach with a long track record of falling short of the seed line faces added pressure as Friday’s frontrunner.
Marquette narrowly escaped a second-round battle with Colorado despite shooting 62 percent from the field as the Buffaloes grabbed 12 offensive rebounds.
Mohamed Diarra alone could achieve that number and maintain the momentum of the hottest team in the tournament.
The extra touches will be the difference and allow North Carolina State, which ranks 10th nationally in turnovers per possession, to withstand Marquette’s pressure.
This season: 24-26
Records from 2011-23: 349-308-12
