Today is MLB Wednesday. There are some afternoon games on the holiday, but we’re firmly focused on his two games in the evening.
Mother Nature is wreaking havoc on the East Coast and may have something to say regarding the status of some of tonight’s games. Anyway, let’s find the winner on PrimePicks.
Players selected by MLB DFS on Wednesday
Cristian Javier 3.5 or more strikeouts or 6.5 or more strikeouts
Depending on how aggressive you get with your picks, Javier’s Demon and Goblin numbers on the board against the Jays have merit.
The Astros’ right-hander remains active after being disastrous for much of last season. Was it mechanics? Did he have the yips? No one knows for sure.
But he reportedly had a great offseason and lost a lot of weight. He made his MLB debut and pitched a gem against the Yankees, striking out six against a gritty Yankees batting lineup.
Most notably, Javier threw his changeup over 27% of the time against New York. This is significant because it’s the most he’s thrown that pitch in a game in about three years. In fact, he has never thrown a changeup 20% of the time in any game over the past four MLB seasons.
The changeup was his second-best pitch last season in terms of whiff rate and put-away rate (via baseballsavant), but he threw it just 4% of the time.
I’m not whispering about Javier, but it’s certainly possible that the changeup unlocked a new level of his pitching, and at the very least could turn his disastrous 2023 season into a mirage.
I’m buying some Javier stock right now.
Yordan Alvarez hit over 0.5 home runs
The weather was really bad for Wednesday night, and there are concerns about the weather for some games. But have fun and aim for a home run.
(Disclaimer: Home run calls are very hard to hit, which is why they are listed as demons in the prize picks in the Demons and Goblins section. Demons are harder to hit, so they give you bigger payouts. .Goblin is the opposite), you’ll be more likely to win than a regular 1:1 exchange, but the payout will be worse. Please see here for the detail. )
Toronto starting pitcher Chris Bassitt was very good against right-handed hitters last season. He made his first start last Friday against Tampa Bay and was looking good until he was hit with a grand slam by left-handed hitter Brandon Lowe.
Being a left-handed hitter was Bassitt’s Achilles heel. Last season, he had a .240 ISO and 12% barrel rate against them.
There are only two left-handed batters in the Astros’ projected lineup. One is Alvarez, who posted an incredible .358 ISO with a 21% barrel rate against right-handed hitters in 2023.
Bassitt may have success against most of the Astros’ right-handed hitters, but Alvarez and Houston’s other left-handed pitcher, Kyle Tucker, could cause him problems.
Joey Gallo, over 0.5 home runs
Gallo is one of the most infuriating players to watch in the batter’s box. The Nationals’ first baseman is known for striking out and hitting the ball really far. It doesn’t exist between me and him.
But all we need is one shot from Wednesday’s bat.
Last year at the University of Minnesota, Gallo struck out 43% of the time against right-handed pitchers. But he had an unprecedented hard contact rate of 71% against them.
Most of the time he whiffs, but when he connects the ball collapses, as evidenced by his 18% barrel rate against right-handed hitters.
The jury is still out on opposing pitcher Mitch Keller. He was beaten by the struggling Marlins in his first start with the Pirates. One of those reasons could be that his fastball velocity has decreased starting in 2023.
There are some pitchers who are still hitting their stride, and while there are some doubts, this could be a spot where Keller can fade out early in the season.
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Last season, he relied heavily on fastballs, allowing 16 of his 25 home runs to left-handed hitters.
And that’s right in Gallo’s wheelhouse.
