Colorado State University’s first outlook for the 2024 hurricane season could be a busy time for forecasters, with about 23 named storms expected to develop in the Atlantic Basin, with nearly half expected to become hurricanes. It is shown that.
CSU principal investigator Dr. Phil Klotzbach said atmospheric conditions and other favorable signs made his team more confident in this year’s outlook than in previous April announcements.
within reportthe research team highlighted states and regions where the probability of a cyclone passing is either above or below the climatological probability.
According to the forecast, there was a 62% chance that a major hurricane would make landfall along the U.S. coastline, with the highest chance of landfall in the Caribbean Sea at 66%.
CSU said within the Lower 48, it is almost guaranteed that at least one cyclone will pass within 50 miles of Florida during the season, with New England states having the lowest odds.
In all coastal states, the odds are about 10 to 20 percent higher than what is considered average, with Alabama showing the highest rate of increase.
The researchers said the probability of landfall is related to the expected probability. accumulated cyclone energycommonly referred to as the ACE index.
The ACE value for a tropical cyclone is calculated by the maximum sustained wind speed for 6 hours and the lifetime of the storm.
A cyclone with sustained strong winds that exists for a long time will have a higher ACE value than a cyclone that develops and collapses quickly.
Researchers expect an ACE value of 210 to be produced in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea during the 2024 season. This is 170% of the average season production value.
Almost 60% of all ACEs are expected to occur west of 60 degrees west longitude, where nearly the entire population affected by tropical storms and hurricanes in the basin resides.
“When we have an El Niño like we had last year, the general storm pattern is that the storm dies down before it reaches the islands and before it reaches the United States,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Brian Norcross. To tell.
“This year, we’ve switched to La Niña, so the waters in the Pacific tend to be cooler, and the storms tend to move a little bit further west and have a better chance of making landfall in the Caribbean. And of course, once the storms get into the Caribbean, sometimes It can even reach the Gulf Coast and impact places like Florida.”
A lower or higher probability does not guarantee or preclude an area from being directly attacked.
Although the Florida Panhandle had only a 28% chance of being affected by a major storm in 2023, it was the only region of the country affected by a significant cyclone.
“The point is, if you live in a hurricane zone, you can’t turn off your brain thinking about hurricanes. And this year, it’s important to think about how to protect your home. It’s time to make sure we do that,” Norcross said.
