3 reasons Purdue can upset UConn in national championship game

In recent weeks, the following story has been making the rounds: university university It’s a huge monster and an unstoppable force. Some of us have even written that the Huskies feel it is inevitable that he will become college basketball’s first back-to-back national champions since Florida in 2006-2007.

But what if, from the moment this season began in November, we’ve all just been watching a team that looks to be on par with the Huskies? If we stand between UConn and a second consecutive national title? What if we foolishly ignored the fact that our only obstacle happens to be the biggest and most significant obstacle in our sport?

What if we’ve been thinking the wrong way all month?

Here are three reasons why Purdue was able to pull off a “not-so-shocking” upset in the men’s national championship game on Monday night.

1. UConn has never played a better team in the past two tournaments.

The numbers surrounding UConn’s last two performances leading up to March Madness are surprising. Not only has the Huskies won 11 straight games in the NCAA Tournament, he has won 11 straight games in the NCAA Tournament, all by a margin of 13 points or more, and he has easily covered the spread in each contest. Masu.

“We make a difficult tournament look easy,” UW head coach Danny Hurley said after his team’s 86-72 win over Alabama on Saturday. “That’s crazy.”

However, here’s something else. UConn has never played a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in his 11 games in the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue is not just the “next team” on the road to postseason doom for Connecticut, but it is without a doubt the best team the Huskies have faced in an NCAA Tournament game under Coach Hurley.

Remember, if the Boilermakers hadn’t lost in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament, they almost certainly would have been Matt Painter’s team instead of Hurley’s, earning the No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday. UConn may be, but saw As with the best teams for much of the season, it was Purdue that had the more complete resume until the eve of Selection Sunday.

Remember too that Purdue was almost as dominant as UConn during this tournament. The Boilermakers won all but one game in the Big Dance by 12 points or more. The only “close call” of the tournament was a 72-66 win over second-seeded Tennessee in the Elite Eight, arguably more than any other opponent the University of Connecticut has had to overcome in the past. was also excellent.

Purdue is No. 2 in KenPom and could jump into the top spot with a win tonight. What is his previous highest-ranked KenPom team that the Huskies have faced in the tournament the past two years? No. 8 Gonzaga in last season’s Elite Eight.

The Boilermakers have the best players and most unique challengers in the sport on their roster, and unlike last year, they have a supporting cast that can take down the best teams in the country if they focus on the big man under center. It has been strengthened.

You never know how UConn will react in the final minutes of a close game on a stage like this. Because it hasn’t happened yet. Purdue has enough power to put the Huskies in that position for the first time in two years.

2. Zach Eady’s presence should minimize the impact of UConn’s biggest upside

Tristen Newton was named to the All-American First Team this season. Stephon Castle will almost certainly be a lottery pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. Cam Spencer is an assassin in key moments, and Alex Karavan has experience starting and producing on this same stage a year ago.

Not one of these players was UConn’s postseason MVP.

That credit goes to the man in the middle, sophomore center Donovan Clingan, who averaged 16.2 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 3.5 bpg and shot just under 70 percent from the field in the NCAA Tournament. It was nearly impossible for the East’s best player to score in the paint throughout the tournament.

literally.

The problem for UW is that Clingan doesn’t present the same problems to Purdue that it presents to other teams in the country.

Zack Eady is bigger than Klingan, and if you want to get straight to the point, he’s better than Klingan. The husky center will be the first 7-footer to face off in a title game since Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon in 1984, but he won Game 6 just as he won Games 1-5. It seems impossible to control.

UW had an elite big man in Adama Sanogo last season, but he didn’t lead the Huskies the way Clingan has led this group until the final Monday of the season. Jordan Hawkins was named the 2023 West Regional Most Valuable Player, and Newton was the player who led the team in scoring and rebounding in the title game.

UConn certainly has the weapons needed to make up for the drastic drop in production from Clingan on Monday night, but unless those weapons step up, there’s no safety net for them this round.

3. The past has nothing to do with this game.

I’m not saying UConn doesn’t deserve support in this game. they are supported. But the fact that the spread is 6.5 and no one outside of West Lafayette seems to be giving Purdue a chance…feels weird.

I can’t help but think that both of these shows’ March reputations and the stories surrounding them aren’t a factor here.

The king of this stage is Connecticut. They made it through the NCAA Tournament in historic fashion last season, defeating Purdue on their way to the most dominant title in March Madness history. The Huskies have won the national championship five times in their history, all since 1999. He is 5-0 in national title games.

Meanwhile, Purdue claims the dubious title of “the best program to never win a national championship.” The stigma of March disappointment has been attached to them for decades, but never as strongly as in the past three years. At that time, the season ended at the hands of the 13th, 15th, and 16th seeds. Each. The Boilermakers also famously come from a conference that hasn’t produced a national champion since 2000.

Every prognosticator out there says this game will be decided by two or three points, but there’s still a 6.5 point spread here that most of the betting public believes UConn will easily cover. I am. If, say, Purdue had won a national championship a few years ago and reached the Final Four several times over the past 15 seasons, it’s natural to wonder if the same would be true.

Purdue fans can rest assured that the past has nothing to do with what happens Monday night in Glendale. Every day for the past five months, the Boilermakers have looked like worthy challengers to UConn’s throne, and now they have a chance to prove it.