At first glance, the betting lines for Sunday’s English Premier League clash between first place Arsenal and fifth place Aston Villa would appear to be quite wide.
The Gunners are -370 favorites at home against a side who are just fourth in the table, 11 points behind them.
This is a narrow gap between Chelsea and Everton, with the former only -140 favorites to win at home to the Toffees on Monday.
Watch Sunday’s match between Arsenal and Aston Villa (11:30am ET) and make your picks.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa odds
| arsenal | Aston Villa | draw | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| -370 | +850 | +500 | o3.5(+124)/u2.5(-150) |
Arsenal vs Aston Villa predictions
Experienced bettors know that standings and box scores rarely tell the whole story.
So while Arsenal and Aston Villa look like tier A and tier B teams respectively, they are actually not.
Arsenal are one of the best teams in the world at the moment, and arguably the best defensive side in all of football.
It’s a terrible matchup against a team like Aston Villa, who use attacking power to cover up serious defensive deficiencies.
Villa are currently fourth in the Premier League in terms of goals scored and seventh in expected non-penalty goals, but there is no doubt that they will have problems against the Gunners, who are at the top of basically every defensive metric.
Things are equally worrying at the other end of the pitch for Villa, who are ranked 17th in the Premier League for big goalscoring chances denied and 12th for expected goals conceded.
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Arsenal vs Aston Villa picks
Arsenal should have no problem finding the back of the net in this game and I believe their defense will help them pull off a rout in front of a raucous crowd on Sunday.
Bet: Arsenal -2.5 (+190, DraftKings)
