Tuesday night’s Western Conference NBA Play-In will be a do-or-die game for the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings.
That could mean explosive performances from Stephen Curry, one of the best point guards to ever step on the court, and De’Aaron Fox, the current Clutch Player of the Year. It means that.
Interestingly, Curry finished the regular season as the odds-on favorite to win Clutch Player of the Year, making a potential matchup between two of the league’s most clutch players in a win-or-go-home scenario. There is.
How much better will it be?
Take a look at the props for your two favorite players from Tuesday night’s NBA Play-In Tournament matchup between the Warriors and Kings.
Props for the top players in Tuesday’s NBA Play-In Tournament
Stephen Curry 28.5 points or more (-125, bet 365)
Curry’s infamous Game 7 against the Kings in Sacramento last season was one of the best performances of his NBA career. He had 50 points, eight rebounds and six assists in an offensive masterclass.
His track record in elimination games is very solid, going 9-5 in 14 games with a win or going home, averaging 29.4 points, 7 assists, and 5.9 rebounds on 44/36/90 shooting.
Additionally, Curry shot 48.8 percent from the field and scored 33.7 points per game in last season’s seven-game playoff series with the Kings. He scored 29 points or more in six of those seven games, just one point shy of the current betting line (28.5 points) in Game 2 last year (28 points).
His performance in this series has been encouraging, averaging nearly 25 field goal attempts per game. He’s going to have to shoot just as well this time around if the Dubs are to get a squeeze on Sacramento.
The Kings’ perimeter defense has been a major weakness this season, allowing opponents to shoot 38.7% from behind the arc (29th in opponent 3-point percentage). For a 3-point assassin like Curry, this is the perfect matchup.
Curry’s career average is 40.9 minutes per elimination game, so he could potentially play more than 40 minutes in this matchup. This is a significant increase from his average of 32.7 per game this season.
In the four games in which Curry played at least 40 minutes during the 2023-24 regular season, he averaged 41.3 points per game.
In an elimination game against Sacramento, I would support Curry over the point without hesitation.
Domantas Sabonis less than 8.5 assists (-111, FanDuel)
Sabonis had fond memories of holding the Warriors to 49.5 percent from the field, 16.4 points, 11 rebounds and 4.7 assists in the first round of last year’s playoff series.
Golden State’s physicality, especially Kevon Looney and Draymond Green, disrupted Sabonis’ offensive form and confidence.
During that playoff series, Sabonis failed to record more than nine assists in any game, which is the number of assists he needed to get over the line (8.5) on Tuesday.
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In fact, Sabonis only reached nine assists in two of his 26 total games against the Warriors.
In addition to Green and Looney, the Dubs currently have rookie center Trayce Jackson-Davis in their frontcourt. The physicality of these three players could cause problems for Sabonis.
Golden State also recognizes that Sabonis is the key to the Kings’ offense and getting the ball out of his hands is their best chance to steal a road win at this spot.
