On April 9, the Arizona Supreme Court allowed enforcement of an 1864 law that effectively restricts abortion in all cases except when the mother’s life is in danger. The ruling puts the issue of abortion even more prominently in the middle of an already contentious election year, forcing Republicans running in battleground states to grapple not just with the ruling but with the legal status of abortion itself. has been done.
Conversations with strategists and campaigns revealed that many Republicans are keenly aware that the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision could swing the vote up or down. However, there is no agreement on how to approach this issue.
Meanwhile, a constitutional amendment to establish the right to abortion; on the ballot paperArizona has become a focus for Democrats.
President Joe Biden’s campaign launched Just two days after the decision, a seven-figure Arizona ad was purchased targeting young, female and Hispanic voters. The House Democratic Party’s campaign arm has launched an attack on incumbent Republican members. Representative Ruben Gallego, Democratic Senate candidate; debuted Digital ad bashing Republican candidate Kari Lake’s past abortion comments.
Voting bills on sentencing and abortion are also expected to boost Democratic turnout. Crystal Ball of Sabato, a nonpartisan election analyst, reclassified Arizona’s key races into a more competitive category, writing, “Massive voting battles over abortion rights are pushing Democrats in the state.” “I can’t imagine it having a negative impact on increasing voter turnout, and there’s a good chance it could help.”
“I truly think the Supreme Court’s decision is a game-changer for elections in Arizona,” Arizona-based Republican strategist Barrett Marson told the Daily Caller News Foundation. We need to re-evaluate.”
But so far, Republican reaction has been mixed.
Phoenix, Arizona – February 29: (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
“Invest a lot of money”
DCNF contacted all major Republican campaigns in the state, as well as Republican campaign arms and major fundraising sources in the House and Senate, to assess the Republican strategy.
Some groups and campaigns acknowledge that the ruling could boost Democratic turnout and attract donations, and stress the need to spend money accordingly.
A spokesperson for the Arizona Republican Party told DCNF, “We are fighting back and will wage an aggressive grassroots campaign to protect our state from the radical left.”
Others, however, are less concerned, arguing that the ruling will do little to change the course of the vote.
“Democrats are already going to back out. It’s like Donald Trump is on the ballot,” one Republican national strategist told DCNF.
In a statement to DCNF, President Trump’s press secretary, Caroline Leavitt, reiterated President Trump’s recent stance on abortion. The former president opposed a national ban and argued in favor of leaving the issue to the states, but he did not do so. Answer specific questions related to the actions your campaign may take.
“President Trump couldn’t have been more clear. These are decisions that must be made by the people of each state,” Levitt said.
Trump also came out against On April 12, in a post on Truth Social, he criticized the Arizona Supreme Court’s “overreaching” ruling and called on the state Legislature and Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs to urgently “correct what happened.” .
Nevertheless, Biden’s ad blitz targeted Trump’s stance on abortion. “Because of Donald Trump, millions of “Women have lost their basic freedom to control their own bodies.” “Women’s lives are at risk because of this.”
Since the ruling, Gallego has also sought to draw attention to the abortion issue, running ads in which Lake says “abortion is wrong,” “wrong for the Senate,” and “wrong for Arizona.”
For her part, Lake came out. against The state Supreme Court’s decision called for a “common sense solution.”She also expressed her support for Trump’s position on abortion on April 8, and then released Policy video on this issue.
“I made a choice in life, but I’m not every woman. I want to give every woman who gets pregnant more options so they can make the same choice I did,” Lake said in the video. He spoke at “I never thought there were women out there who were going through the exact same feelings and situations as me. Some women are in terrible financial situations, may be in abusive relationships, are victims of rape, etc. We know it could be someone.”
“Republicans need to talk about what they believe on the abortion issue. They have to. And I think Kali Lake is doing a pretty good job of that.” said the national strategist.
Lake’s campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesperson Tate Mitchell told DCNF, “Arizona is one of our biggest electoral opportunities this year, and we elected Kali Lake. “We will continue to work hard to defeat open borders.” Left-wing radical Ruben Gallego. ”
The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a super PAC backing Senate Republicans, stressed to DCNF that only Montana and Ohio have made spending decisions. SLF gave DCNF a target for June 2023 voting memo The announcement was made by One Nation, an affiliated nonprofit group, urging Republicans to clarify their stance on abortion.
Another national Republican strategist told DCNF, “The national Republican Party still plans to invest heavily in TV advertising and ground operations in Arizona.”
Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee (RNC) referred the DCNF to President Trump’s Truth social posts criticizing the state Supreme Court’s ruling and the April 10 campaign. press release He called former President Biden’s attacks on abortion “dishonest.” The RNC did not provide details about its efforts to counter Democratic spending in the state.
On the House front, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is targeting the districts of Rep. David Schweikert and Rep. Juan Siscomani.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also moved Ciscomani’s seat from “Republican-leaning” to “toss-up” on Wednesday.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans, did not respond to DCNF’s request for comment. So were the campaigns of Mr. Schweikert and Mr. Siscomani.
The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a super PAC backing House Republicans, spent nearly $1 million on Schweickart’s campaign in the 2022 midterm elections and more than $3 million on Siscomani. It was announced that.
“CLF was proud to support Schweickart and Cisco Mani last cycle, and we are ready to do what it takes to help these talented members win again this fall. “CLF communications director Courtney Parella told DCNF in a statement.
MESA, AZ – OCTOBER 9: Former US President Donald Trump hugs Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake during a campaign rally at Legacy Sports USA on October 9, 2022 in Mesa, Arizona. Ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections, President Trump was facing an uphill battle for Arizona Republican candidates. (Photo courtesy of Mario Tama/Getty Images)
“The Arizonans made the decision.”
Arizona Republican lawmakers are similarly divided on what the legal status of abortion itself should be.
For example, Republican members of the Arizona state legislature Two degrees blocked A move to repeal the 1864 law following a state Supreme Court ruling.
“From a messaging perspective, [the ruling] “It’s even more difficult for Republicans, and in some of the hotly contested Congressional and Congressional races, this will be an issue for some time to come unless Congress can find a solution,” said former Arizona Republican. said Brian Murray. the party secretary general told DCNF.
Lawmakers who blocked the repeal of this law, state liberal caucushave expressed support for the decision, while Schweikert and Siscomani, like Lake, oppose it.
“This issue should be decided by Arizonans, not legislated in court,” Schweikert said. I have written “We encourage the state Legislature to address this issue immediately.”
“Territorial law is outdated” Cisco Mani Said same day. “We must do better for women. I call on our nation’s policymakers to immediately address this issue on a bipartisan basis.”
Opposition from prominent Republicans to the Arizona Supreme Court’s abortion ruling could dampen Democratic turnout gains, said polling analyst John McHenry.
“Typically, if something is on the ballot, it’s something that helped Democrats, and there’s no way around that. So many prominent Republicans are claiming this is really overreach. So the situation in Arizona is going to be an interesting case,” McHenry said. “If you have Republicans who are basically on the same side saying, ‘We need to repeal this,’ it will be interesting to see what the turnout is.”
Despite this, Democratic politicians Opponent have launched volley fire Oppose them on abortion, while House Democratic campaign arms up Paid “We are moving backwards in our stance on abortion,” Schweikert and Siscomani said, adding, “Arizona voters must remember that they remain committed to controlling women and moving this country backwards.” “There will be,” he added.
DCCC places mobile billboards in Schweikert district targeting Republicans over IVF voting record, The Copper Courier report April 11th.
Arizona Republican Party still release The state Democratic Party issued a statement regarding the ruling. launched Numerous attacks were made on Lake, Siscomani, and Schweikert over this issue.
“A tough year for Republicans.”
Arizona’s importance in the presidential race between Trump and Biden, and the relatively narrow margins of victory in past Senate races, make it even more important for Republicans to get the abortion issue right. The state’s presidential, Senate and congressional races could be decided by just a few thousand votes this cycle, meaning the potential for increased Democratic turnout is particularly large.
“It should be a good year for the Republican Party in Arizona, but it’s going to be a tough year. I mean, Joe Biden has a lot of headwinds here in Arizona,” Merson said. “[Before the ruling], I was going to say that Arizona is a low-Trump state…and today? Arizona can be said to be a state that leans toward Mr. Biden. ” (Related: Election analysis brings bad news for Arizona Republicans after landmark abortion ruling)
Trump narrowly won Arizona in 2016, but lost the state to Biden in 2020 by less than 11,000 votes.
But RealClearPolitics has Trump leading Biden. average In Arizona, where support has increased all cycle and is currently up 4.5 points, Democrats hope the abortion issue will help Trump narrow his lead as Election Day approaches.
Following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling, abortion played a key role in swaying Democratic voters in the 2022 midterm elections. according to Go to KFF/AP VoteCast analysis.
However, in presidential election years, this effect may not be as strong.
“We’re literally going to have an army of workers canceling votes in the presidential election,” Murray told DCNF. “If you didn’t vote this time or didn’t vote last time, it’s because you really didn’t want to vote. So I don’t think turnout will be as high as expected.”
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster for the 2020 Biden campaign, told DCNF that the state Supreme Court’s ruling “resists this problem not just in Arizona, but everywhere.”
“It helps the Senate race, it helps the president, it helps increase voter turnout, it helps persuade women in the suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson. So it’s very, very important for winning the state and for state leadership. It’s a positive thing,” Lake said. “That’s the big difference since Dobbs. In Dobbs, the pro-abortion camp is more vibrant and more powerful than the anti-abortion camp.”
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