Squad scores with Summer Lee win, but faces a long primary calendar

Rep. Summer Lee’s first victory over a moderate Democrat in Pennsylvania this week has emboldened progressives and heightened the sense of urgency among those aiming for a “split.”

This is promising for fellow members of the Squad, especially Democratic Reps. Jamal Bowman (New York) and Cori Bush (Missouri), who are trying to fend off a formidable primary threat to themselves amid an influx of spending from pro-Israel groups. The result was trying to overthrow them.

“I would expect some of the races that they’re already investing in to double down on that,” said Matt Das, a former senior foreign policy adviser to Sens. Bernie Sanders (Va. and Vermont). , spoke about the intentions of these organizations. To get rid of the squad. “And you’re going to see progressives come together to defend it.”

The Israel-Hamas war has exposed deep divisions within the Democratic Party, with progressives calling for a ceasefire and criticizing Israel and the Biden administration’s handling of the crisis.

Mr. Lee was one of the first members of Congress. ask for a ceasefireHe fended off a challenge from Edgewood City Councilwoman Babini Patel on Tuesday by about 20 points, according to Decision Desk headquarters.Patel, a moderate Democrat, made the accusation. Lee Although his anti-Semitic champion was billionaire Republican donor Jeffrey Yass, Lee had amassed a sizable war chest.

Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkoff said Lee’s victory was “a clear sign that progressives who can muster large sums of money and large-scale ground operations can win races against just about anyone.” “It stimulates the ‘urgency’ and ‘intensity’ of those who desire it.” The squad leaves. ”

“So the question is… is the campaign in Pittsburgh an indication of where this is going? That’s an example,” Sheinkopf said.

Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins said progressives should see Lee’s Pennsylvania primary victory as “a good sign heading into the election.” “If you’re a bowman, you feel a lot better the day after the game. [primary] The election was more advanced than the day before. ”

But while Lee’s victory is an overall boost for the Liberals, there is no guarantee that her fellow squad members will have a smooth victory.

“One win, one loss does not indicate a trend,” Democratic strategist Rodel Molyneaux said. “Every squad district is different. Summer Lee’s district looks nothing like AOC’s district, Cori Bush’s district looks nothing like it, and so on.”

Notably, the top pro-Israel group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has pledged a large sum of money to support Lee, his Republican rival, when he first runs for the seat in 2022. Despite investing money, he did not participate in the primary election this year.

The group has backed challengers in key squad races and reportedly plans to spend $100 million to target progressive candidates. AIPAC’s super PAC, the United Democracy Project, raised more than $49 million in the first quarter of this year, according to . Documents to be submitted In cooperation with the Federal Election Commission.

In New York’s 16th Congressional District, Mr. Bowman will face Westchester County Executive George Latimer, and in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, Mr. Bush will face St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell. AIPAC supports and contributes to both challengers.

Although no large-scale polling has been conducted on these races, some results suggest potential problems for progressive incumbents. One poll conducted by the Republican firm in February showed Mr. Bush down 22 points.and March survey A poll conducted by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman of the Israeli Democratic majority showed Bowman 17 places behind.

AIPAC is currently “evaluating other primaries involving detractors of U.S.-Israel relations,” spokesperson Marshall Wittman told The Hill in an email.

“We will participate in races where our involvement can have the greatest impact. The stakes in the next election are very high and the voices of the pro-Israel movement will be heard. ” Whitman said.

Among other things, the group spent $4.6 million opposing Dave Minn, who was campaigning to replace Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) in the House, according to filings. It has become clear. supported By the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Min reportedly said: was critical Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke, but did not call for a permanent ceasefire.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) also won in Minneapolis, part of Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, from Don Samuels, a moderate Democrat and former city councilman who won by just 2 points in 2022. facing major challenges.

Omar was one of the original members of the squad, while Lee and Bowman were added later. The group is an informal label centered around his eight House progressives.

Despite the energy behind those seeking to oust squad members, strategists stressed that it is Difficult to beat the incumbent. Sheinkov pointed out that: Bowman and bush Both operate in areas with significant minority communities.

During his time in office, Mr. Lee mentioned fellow progressives who were at risk. Award speech on Tuesday night.

“I don’t feel bad when people say, ‘Are you on the squad?'” Whatever, it is. they are my people. … We got this win here in Pittsburgh, but this is just the first step. This was the first race. So we need to make sure we have that same energy and pick it up and then take it to New York,” Lee said. “And once we finish the game with Jamal Bowman, we’ll head to St. Louis and make sure Cori Bush crosses the finish line there.”

Last month, a coalition of progressive groups launched Reject AIPAC, which aims to protect targeted lawmakers.

“AIPAC did not participate in this election because they could not find a candidate corrupt enough to carry out their agenda and seeing how connected Summer Lee is to the community. Now we are ramping up our preparations to take on AIPAC in Jamal Bowman’s campaign,” said Michelle Windling, political director of the Sunrise Movement, one of the groups in that coalition. Ta.

Mr. Bowman’s New York primary will be held in mid-June, and Mr. Bush’s Missouri campaign will be held in early August.

Foreign policy is often ignored in presidential elections, but tensions over the Gaza war and U.S. support for Israel are likely to play a role in the voting contest.

President Biden faces massive protest votes and boycotts at polling places in primaries in several states, making the war a political liability and complicating his candidacy in a close race against former President Trump. There is a possibility that it will happen.

The incumbent has also had his campaign disrupted multiple times by pro-Palestinian protesters, some of whom are organized by the “Abandon Biden” movement, even if it clears a path for Trump. They want to punish the president by withholding votes on Election Day, even if it means doing so. President’s office.

“I think it’s true that foreign policy rarely plays a big role in elections or in voters’ decisions. But I think this issue, especially the issue of Israel, Palestine, Palestinian rights and Gaza, resonates. I think they do it because they think it’s not just a foreign policy issue. It’s a social and racial justice issue,” Das said.

“Given the level of anger that we’re seeing, I think it’s an issue that the party has to deal with in a better way than it has in the past.”