The college football postseason is expanding for the first time in a decade, tripling the number of participating teams from four to 12 teams.
This new postseason format comes with some unique challenges, including on-campus first-round matchups and byes for the top four conference champions.
One thing that hasn’t changed much is the college football futures market.
In last fall’s preseason futures market, nine teams had odds of 18/1 or lower. As of Monday, despite his new 12-team field, there are eight teams with odds of 18/1 or lower.
Does this mean oddsmakers are foolishly dangling lucrative numbers, or are they setting a bear trap for the general public? Let’s pull back the curtain.
To see how oddsmakers have reacted to the new playoff format, it’s instructive to look back at the pivot points of the last expansion in college football.
Oddsmakers quickly adapted to the BCS era (1998-2013), settling into familiar territory each preseason, regularly grouping seven or eight teams in the +400 to 18/1 range.
Over the last five years of the BCS, an average of seven teams fell into that range.
When the postseason berths doubled to four in 2014, it was natural for oddsmakers to add a few top contenders to the group of “favorites,” but they didn’t budge. Before the start of the 2014 season, seven teams opened between +300 and 18/1.
What’s notable is that Ohio State (40/1) wasn’t taken seriously by oddsmakers and not only lost badly in the first CFP, but won it all.
Over time, oddsmakers have increased their preseason “favorite” candidates, with nine teams leading the way in the final season of the CFP four-team era.
With tripled access to the playoffs, we expected this Futures group to grow as well, but as mentioned above, it actually shrunk to eight. This brings tremendous value to bettors.
Even if all eight of the championship favorites participated, there would still be four spots left for teams with a score of 20-1 or higher. Getting into the playoffs with a team north of 30/1 is a license to print money from a hedging perspective.
Speaking of teams that are priced wrong, here are two of my current favorite teams.
Miami (Florida) wins national championship (66/1, bet 365)
Fortunes can change quickly in the NIL/Portal era, and Miami has added to its roster this offseason by acquiring four four-star prospects with particular attention in the offensive backfield. Added significant talent.
Former Washington State QB Cam Ward, who totaled 33 touchdowns and nearly 3,900 total yards last fall, has started 25 games at the FBS level. He brings instant stability to the upper and lower positions of the “cane”.
Ward will be succeeded by fellow Pac-2 transfer Damien Martinez. The running back is a force at Oregon State and is his 10th-best returning rusher in the nation according to PFF rankings.
Overall, Miami is the third most experienced team when factoring in production restarts and relocation activity, according to Action Network’s Colin Wilson.
Do you want to bet on college football?
Boise State wins national championship (600/1, Bet Rivers)
At this price it makes no sense at all.
The highest-ranked G5 team is finally guaranteed a playoff spot, but who is the best G5 team this season? Boise is a mile away.
The defending Mountain West champions return 18 starters, including All-American candidate Ashton Giunty at running back. The Broncos also added USC quarterback Malachi Nelson, a former five-star recruit.
Tyler Stockton will take over play-calling duties as defensive coordinator. The rising star was nominated for the Broyles Award three times during his time at Ball State and is a name to watch in coaching circles.
The Broncos’ schedule features non-conference games against Oregon State, Oregon State and Washington State, offering a path to the playoffs that doesn’t require a perfect 13-0 record.
