Former President Donald Trump has led President Joe Biden in nearly every poll this term in Nevada, which hasn’t been Republican in 20 years. A win in Nevada would give President Trump six electoral votes in November, a difference that could be decisive in giving the former president a second term.
President Trump boasts his greatest wealth lead It’s the lead of any battleground state in Nevada, where Biden currently leads by just 6.2 points. guided All three polls have cycled, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. Several political operatives and pollsters told the Daily Caller News Foundation that Trump’s lead in Nevada could be due to the state’s poor economic conditions and a shift among Hispanic voters toward the Republican Party. said that it was high. (Related: Biden is running out of time to boost his dismal poll numbers in key battleground states)
“The results in Nevada are really surprising. I think the big issue for President Biden is the economy,” John McHenry, Republican polling analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, told DCNF. Ta. “Hispanic voters make up about 20% of Nevada’s electorate, and there is no realistic way for Joe Biden to win the state even if he loses among them.”
Nevada’s economy is heavily dependent on tourism and remains recovery From pandemic-era closures.Battleground states have some of the worst unemployment rates in the country. Feeand has some of the best gas and groceries; Nevada home prices continue to rise rise After achieving the record in 2022.
“Nevada always gets hit the hardest. When the American economy catches a cold, Nevada gets the flu. So it’s interesting to me that Nevada voters are so moody and upset about the current Nevada economy. There’s no question about it,” Christian Ramos, a longtime Democratic political operative who worked in Nevada, told DCNF. “Joe Biden has an opportunity to tell his story about how he has helped give people the tools to build a better life in states with Latino voters. I think he has a lot of room to grow given his ranking. I don’t know if you can say the same about Donald Trump.”
New York Times/Siena College investigation A poll released Monday showed Mr. Trump had a 12-point lead over Mr. Biden among registered voters in Nevada, with 13% remaining undecided. However, 22% of Hispanic voters cited the economy as their “main reason” for voting in November. Additionally, the public overwhelmingly trusts Trump to run the economy more than Biden, at 70% and 24%, respectively.
Nevada is home to about 353,000 Latino voters, who are more likely to register as a Democrat than a Republican. according to Donate to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Education Fund. CNN exit vote The Silver State shows Biden’s 26-point demographic victory over Trump in 2020.
Ramos said that for Biden to win in the Silver State, he “needs to close the economic gap” with Latinos.
Jeremy Hughes, a Nevada-based Republican strategist who worked on Trump’s 2020 campaign, also told DCNF that local economic factors are drawing Hispanic voters to the former president.
“I think some of them are feeling, ‘Oh, these guys were right.’ We told them how great President Trump was on the economy, and now they’re like, ‘Oh, these guys were right.’ understand that,” Hughes said. “They have seen firsthand how terrible a person President Biden is, and they just [juxtaposing] They told Trump about the economy, and they knew exactly what would happen if either of them became president, and they chose Donald Trump. ”
Las Vegas, Nevada – March 19: US President Joe Biden speaks at the Stupak Community Center. (Photo by Ian Moll/Getty Images)
Jim DeGraffenreid, the state’s Republican national committee member, argued that the polling trend is also likely due to immigration being a top issue for Nevadans.
When a NYT/Siena College poll asked Nevadans, “What is the most important issue in deciding your vote this November?” immigration ranked second, behind the economy, at 10%. Other polls also show Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by double digits when voters are asked who they trust more to handle this issue.
“We are slowly but surely closing the voter registration gap that Democrats have enjoyed,” Degraffenreid added.
Democratic Party the current Nevada has about 54,000 more registered voters than Republicans, while Nevada’s voter gap is 109,000. November 2020, according to the Secretary of State’s website. The state is also seeing an increase in nonpartisan and third-party voter registration.
In a statement to DCNF, Trump campaign national spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said Biden’s success in Nevada was due to his record.
“Joe Biden’s campaign is failing because his terrible policies are failing our country, and no matter how much money, manpower, or false advertising he has given us over the last four years, “We can’t make up for the damage,” Levitt said. “While Mr. Biden refuses to participate in debates to defend his appalling record, President Trump continues to crush Mr. Biden in every poll, and Team Trump is determined to make America strong and safe again.” We are building a strong ground operation to deliver a winning message of prosperity to Biden in Nevada and every corner of our country. ”
“Across the country, millions of people in so-called ‘Blue States’ are joining our movement out of love, intelligence and, above all, common sense,” President Trump said in a statement.
Biden is not taking the lead on RCP average Trump also leads by 0.6 to 5.4 percentage points in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“As we look ahead to November, there are probably too many twists and turns to make a good prediction, but certainly things are looking good for Donald Trump right now, both in Nevada and across the country,” McHenry said. said.
Conversely, Amy Tarkanian, former chair of the Nevada Republican Party, told DCNF that she doesn’t see how Trump can win in November given his past losses in the state.
“He didn’t lose at Nevada once, he lost twice,” Tarkanian said. “People are just upset and disappointed with the Biden administration. But again, it’s time to make a decision and say, ‘Oh, you know, I’m going to vote for Trump.’ Not many people say that. It doesn’t seem like that’s happening. ”
Hillary Clinton beat Trump won the 2016 Nevada election by a margin of 47.9% to 45.5%, and former president lost Last cycle, the difference between the state and Mr. Biden was less than 34,000 votes.clinton guided While RCP averaged high for most of the 2016 election, Biden first The entire Trump presidential cycle.
Former Republican President George W. Bush was the last Republican to win Nevada. beat In 2004, Democrat John Kerry won by a margin of 50.5% to 47.9%.
Tarkanian also believes that independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could deal a blow to President Trump in the state. There are currently 877,000 registered voters in the state with the Independent American Party, independents, and Libertarian voters, compared to 619,000 in November 2020.
But the RCP average suggests Trump is in the lead. grow up Including Kennedy and the other third-party candidates, it would be 8.8 points in Nevada.
The Biden campaign did not respond to DCNF’s request for comment.
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