FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said if Biden is still “struggling” by the end of the summer, he should consider dropping out of the presidential race.
“If Biden is still struggling in August, he should consider stepping aside,” the pollster wrote to X on Friday. “It’s not a good situation for Democrats either way, but the issue deserves our full attention. It’s clearly an important election. It shouldn’t be taboo to talk about.”
Recent polls have shown Biden’s approval rating remaining low while former President Trump has leads in several key battleground states.
But new polls this week show the race deadlocked nationwide.
Warning signs for Trump and Biden ahead of next month’s first presidential debate
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said if Biden is still “struggling” by the end of the summer, he should consider dropping out of the presidential race. (Drew Ungerer/Getty Images)
A Democratic president represents 48% of registered voters; Republican Predecessor A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday puts Biden at 47% support for the White House, giving him a one-point lead over Trump that’s within the poll’s margin of error.
In what will likely be a five-candidate race, Biden has 41% support, Trump 38%, Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 14%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent progressive candidate Cornel West 2% each.
“Call them weather or call them uncertainty. A significant number of registered voters are still trying to choose a candidate. Kennedy Supporter “Trump supporters are particularly susceptible and less likely to abandon the candidate,” emphasized Tim Murray, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University.
Trump leads Biden in key battleground states in presidential election
A Fox News poll earlier this month showed Trump holding a slim lead over Biden (by one point) in a close race, as rising optimism about the economy has boosted Biden’s approval rating.
National polls remain close, but Trump has leads in several key battleground states. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Silver then added via X: “If Biden falls behind Trump by more than 3 points in battleground states in August (something I don’t take for granted), he’ll be at a pretty big disadvantage. It would be foolish not to consider alternatives. Sometimes the only choice you have is banana variety.”
He added that if the first debate goes “really bad” for Biden and he falls five or six points behind Trump in battleground states, “that’s pretty much a hopeless situation. You’re going to have to pull the emergency lever.”
Nate Silver is the founder of the polling and analysis website FiveThirtyEight. (Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images, AWXII)
The two candidates have agreed to hold two televised debates, in June and September, ahead of the November 5 election.
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FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted Biden would win in 2020, but incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton would beat Trump in 2016.
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