Memorial Day falls about six months before voters head to the polls, and with the presidential campaign in full swing, former President Donald Trump has a national lead over President Joe Biden, reversing a lead he held from Memorial Day 2023.
Three polls from May 2023 showed Biden leading Trump, a stark contrast to Trump’s commanding national lead a year later.
- Biden +2
- May 18-22, 2023
- Biden +1
- May 22-24, 2023
After trailing Biden in nearly every mainstream media poll in 2023, Trump is now leading Biden in 2024.
It seems people have made up their minds about Biden. His approval rating is The remaining Since 2022, his approval rating has dipped below 40%. It’s currently at 35% and was at 38% on Memorial Day last year. Historically, a president needs a 50% approval rating to be re-elected.
Since last May, several political variables have come into play: (1) Trump is facing multiple indictments, (2) Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, (3) Americans continue to struggle to keep up with the rising costs of Biden’s economy (the top issue for voters), and (4) the southern border has become the top issue among voters.
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- Forty-two percent said Trump’s term in office had been “largely good for America,” compared with just 25% who said the same for Biden.
- Compared to 2016, more voters (up 11 points) view Trump as a “safe choice.”
- More voters (up 10 points) approve of President Trump’s economic policies.
- More voters (up 9 points) believe Trump has left the country in a better state.
President Joe Biden attends the NAACP Detroit Chapter’s annual Fight for Freedom Fund Dinner in Detroit, Michigan, on May 19, 2024. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)
The next six months will determine who will be re-elected. Debates will take place, both parties will hold conventions. Trump’s criminal trial will have ripples. Hunter Biden will likely go on trial on gun and tax charges.Black Swan EventThere could be an October surprise, like in 2016 (Russian disinformation) and 2020 (laptop from hell).
While Trump appears to be on a roll on Memorial Day, Democrats and the administrative state won’t stop fighting.
Wendell Fsebo is a political reporter for Breitbart News and a former Republican War Room analyst. The Politics of Slave MoralityFollow Wendell “Bat” @WendellHusebø or The truth of society @WendellHusebo.
