Former President Donald Trump’s conviction at a historic trial in New York City has thrust his 2024 rematch with President Biden into uncharted territory.
Trump is the first former and sitting president to stand trial on a criminal charge and the first major party candidate to run for the White House as a convicted felon.
And a guilty verdict on all 34 charges could have an immediate impact on the outcome of the presidential election, with Trump currently holding a slight lead in national polls and in most of the key battleground states that will decide the election.
Two-thirds of voters nationwide in an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll released Thursday said they felt guilty just hours before the conviction. In court Seventeen percent said it would have no effect on how they would vote in the presidential election, 15% said Trump’s conviction would make them less likely to vote for him, and 15% said it would make them more inclined to support the former president at the polls.
“If Donald Trump is a convicted felon in the November election, that should mean something to the small number of undecided voters in six battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election,” veteran Democratic strategist Chris Moyer told Fox News.
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Former President Donald Trump, who is considered a potential Republican presidential nominee, appears at his criminal trial at New York State Supreme Court in New York City, New York, on Wednesday, May 29, 2024. (Doug Mills/Pool via Reuters)
“In this race, small developments can sway voters in any direction,” said Moyer, a veteran of several Democratic presidential campaigns. “Nobody wants to be a convicted felon when they put their name on the ballot.”
Longtime Republican consultant Colin Reed acknowledged that “it’s never a good thing, in life or in politics, to be convicted of a crime.”
“But the old rules and the old conventional thinking have never really applied to Donald Trump throughout his career as a politician,” added Reid, who has served on multiple Republican presidential campaigns.
“It remains to be seen whether this will be a political test or just another chapter in a long story of ups and downs for a man who has overcome what previously seemed insurmountable political obstacles,” Reid said.
Trump was indicted on charges of falsifying business records in connection with payments he made to porn actress Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about an alleged affair during the 2016 election. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, $130,000 in exchange for keeping quiet about an alleged affair with Trump in 2006. Prosecutors argued that this amounted to an attempt to illegally influence the 2016 election.
Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media during a break in his criminal trial in New York City on May 13, 2024. (Photo by SETH WENIG/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Both Cohen and Daniels testified for the prosecution and were grilled by Trump’s defense team during cross-examination. The case has garnered widespread attention from cable news stations, online and on social media.
The former president has repeatedly denied allegations of falsifying business records or having a sexual relationship with Daniels, and has repeatedly claimed, without offering any evidence, that the case was “prosecuted directly from within the White House and the Department of Justice.”
Trump was also fined several times by the judge in the case and threatened with jail time for violating a gag order meant to protect witnesses and jurors from the former president’s verbal attacks.
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“I don’t think a guilty verdict would fundamentally change the state of the race,” said Chris Anderson, a veteran pollster who is a member of the Fox News election team and the Democratic partner for the Fox News Poll. In a case that has attracted extensive attention from cable news networks, online and on social media, Cohen and Daniels both testified for the prosecution and were grilled by Trump’s defense team during cross-examination.
A big political question going forward is how the outcome of former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial will affect his rematch with President Biden in the 2024 presidential election. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) (Win McNamee/Michael M. Santiago)
Daron Shaw, professor and chair of political science at the University of Texas, a member of Fox News’ decision-making team and a partner at the Republican Party, said: Fox News Poll“Before 2020, no one would have thought that a candidate could survive a criminal conviction,” he said.
“But times and circumstances change. While the specific findings of the jury may be important, some believe this guilty verdict will not significantly change the course of the race,” Shaw stressed.
They pointed to the fact that “attitudes are very set” regarding both the Republican former president and his Democratic successor in the White House.
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