A new poll, conducted shortly after former President Trump was convicted in New York state, finds that significant numbers of Republicans say they are unlikely to vote for Trump in November’s presidential election.
One in 10 Republican voters said Trump’s felony conviction for falsifying business records makes them less likely to support him for president, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on Friday. The two-day poll was conducted hours after a Manhattan jury on Thursday convicted Trump on all counts brought by District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
The poll found that a majority of Republicans (56%) said the outcome of the case would not affect their vote, and 35% said they would be more likely to support Trump if he pleaded not guilty.
Still, the possibility of losing a tenth of Republican voters could significantly reduce the GOP presumptive nominee’s chances of recapturing key battleground states that Biden won in his victory over Trump in 2020. That year, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin tied Biden and Trump in electoral votes by just 44,000 votes, according to NPR.
Trump’s conviction highlights divisions among Republican presidential primary opponents
Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower on Thursday, May 30, 2024, after being convicted of 34 counts of first-degree falsifying business records. (Felipe Ramares for Fox News Digital)
Among registered independent voters, 25% say Trump’s conviction makes them less likely to support him in the November election, compared with 18% who say it makes them more likely and 56% who say a conviction would not affect their decision.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Biden and Trump remained neck and neck, with 41% of voters saying they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 39% said they would choose Trump. The poll, conducted among 2,556 adults nationwide with a margin of error of 2 percentage points, included registered voters.
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Republican presidential candidate and former US president Donald Trump reacts as the verdict is read in his criminal trial on charges he falsified business records to hide payments made to silence porn actress Stormy Daniels in 2016, at a state courthouse in Manhattan, New York City, on May 30, 2024. In this courtroom sketch, (Reuters/Jane Rosenberg)
With just over five months until the presidential election, many Republicans say anger over Trump’s conviction has solidified their support for the former president. Trump’s campaign announced an impressive fundraising total the day after the conviction, raising a total of $53 million in the 24 hours after the conviction.
Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on July 11. Survey respondents were divided on whether Trump should go to prison for his crimes, with 53% of registered voters saying he should not go to prison in the hush money case and 46% saying he should serve time.
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A conviction or even imprisonment for Trump would not bar him from running for president. Republican National Convention The Republican National Committee is scheduled to meet in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, four days after Trump is convicted. The committee adopted rules last year that did not include specific provisions addressing what would happen if the presumptive nominee were convicted.
Trump has repeatedly called his prosecution a “witch hunt” and has accused Bragg and Judge Juan Marchan, who have donated to anti-Trump groups, of being politically motivated. Voters are evenly split, with 52% saying the prosecution is primarily about upholding the rule of law and 46% saying it’s to stop Trump from returning to the White House.
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Trump has been charged with three other criminal offenses, but legal battles could prevent those trials from going ahead before the November election. Legal scholars consider the pending cases, which include allegations that Trump engaged in election fraud and mishandled classified documents after leaving office, to be more serious than the hush money case. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges against him.
Sixty percent of registered voters said it was important that the three pending Trump trials be decided before the election, compared with 39% who said it was not important and 1% who did not answer the question.
Reuters contributed to this report.
