Despite Trump’s conviction, this election is all about the issues

Former president and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s 34 felony convictions are truly unprecedented, but when voters head to the ballot box in November, the question that will be asked will not be whether Trump falsified his business records.

Rather, the key issues are inflation, the economy and immigration.

In other words, that’s the problem, idiot.

So if Trump wants to continue to lead Biden, he would be wise to avoid the trap of focusing on his beliefs and denounce them as a “rigged election.” Instead, he should be specific about his policies to strengthen the economy, lower the cost of living, and close the southern border.

On the other hand, if he wants to win the presidential election in November, Biden should avoid mentioning Trump’s conviction or the threat he poses to democracy. The president should stay on topic, remind voters of what he’s done for the economy and explain his plans to curb inflation and control the border.

In this light, the Biden-Harris campaign’s decision to hold a press conference Outside Trump’s trial seems even more bizarre: Biden, who has long struggled to tout his accomplishments, gave the impression he was trying to weaponize the conviction to avoid having to talk about the issues.

Simply put, despite Democrats’ efforts to demonize Trump and the excessive media attention given to his conviction, polls consistently show that what voters are actually worried about is the economy and inflation, followed by immigration.

In fact, inflation (35%), immigration (32%) and the economy (23%) are the three most important issues facing the country according to a recent Harvard/Harris Poll. voteConversely, what happened on January 6, 2021 (4%) was second to last.

Specifically, nearly four in 10 registered voters (36%) say the economy and inflation are the most important issues facing the United States, followed by immigration (21%), Emerson said. vote (Link).

Conversely, only one in ten voters (10%) cited “threats to democracy.”

And as I wrote in these pages two weeks ago, Biden’s economic problems have become even more salient among voters who are absolutely crucial to his reelection. But the administration’s myopic focus on Trump, rather than the economy, continues to go unnoticed.

According to the same Emerson Poll, nearly half of Hispanic voters (46%), a similar number of those under 30 (43%) and a third of black voters (32%) say the economy and inflation are the most important issues.

By comparison, just 7% of Hispanic voters, 5% of voters under 30 and 12% of black voters say threats to democracy are the biggest problem.

A similar pattern was seen among independents, with 40% saying the economy and inflation were their biggest problem, and only 12% citing threats to democracy.

Moreover, voters generally don’t believe a second term for Trump is as threatening as Biden and Democrats keep saying: Just before the conviction vote, voters were split 50-50 on whether Donald Trump would be a threat if elected, according to Harvard/Harris Research. vote.

Overall, the widespread belief that Trump is better on key issues like the economy and the border makes it clear that abstract arguments about the unique threat Trump poses to democracy are unlikely to sway voters.

In fact, voters trust Trump more than Biden on immigration and border security by 27 points (52 percent to 25 percent), and they trust the former president by 21 points (50 percent to 29 percent) on the economy, according to Marquette University. vote.

To be sure, this isn’t just a Democratic issue: Republicans have long targeted Joe Biden’s son Hunter, using his past legal and drug troubles to paint the entire Biden family as corrupt.

But after Trump’s conviction in New York City, it’s much more likely that Democrats will fall into the trap of believing they can win by avoiding the issues and simply highlighting Trump’s flaws.

At this point, voters are well aware of Trump’s temperament and legal problems, and many, including Republicans, do not want him to serve another term because of those shortcomings, but the overwhelming majority of voters are concerned about his problems at home.

Biden trails Trump by double digits on those issues, and Trump is sure to make voter dissatisfaction with Biden on the economy and the border a central part of his campaign, allowing Trump to play to his strengths but also avoid his weaknesses by deflecting questions about his fitness to be president.

After all, voters are painfully aware as of July 11 that Trump is a convicted felon, so it remains to be seen how much an actual conviction will matter in November.

But what’s clear at this point is that if Democrats think they can win by focusing on Trump without any real solutions to the issues that voters have consistently said are most important, they’re likely to be disappointed in the November election.

Douglas E. Shawn is a political consultant and founder and partner of Shawn Cooperman Research. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China Rise, America Falls Back.”