The House will soon debate the first of 12 annual appropriations bills, a measure to fund the government for another year, and the usual fuss is expected over defense and non-defense priorities, policy riders, earmarked budgets, etc. Observers agree that the process will be rife with disagreements and will not be conclusively concluded until after the November election, or well after.
What is even more worrying is that, despite all this drama attached to it, the expenditure process has seen a huge decline in its share of the overall budget. Currently about 30 percentThat’s down from more than 50% in the 1970s and is projected to shrink to about 20% over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
This means that Congress spends more and more of its time each year fighting over smaller and smaller financial gains, while unsustainable, unchecked, automatic federal spending growth goes unaddressed and largely undebated. This is completely retrograde and a grave mistake.
Unchecked mandatory spending on programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and welfare represents a growing threat to our economic security and, potentially, our way of life. CBO projects that mandatory spending will account for nearly 80 percent of federal spending by 2034. This increase is a major driver of our skyrocketing debt, It is expected to reach $54 trillion over the next decade.This means that every American household will be left with roughly $381,000 in debt.
Moreover, this deficit has caused interest payments on our debt to grow faster than any other federal budget, with annual payments rising by 10% in 2024. Projected to be $870 billionThis exceeds spending on many key priorities, including defense ($817 billion), Medicaid ($557 billion) and veterans benefits ($181 billion).
Why are we paying so much attention to budget issues that are becoming less important rather than issues that are becoming more important and potentially existential? The answer illustrates just how broken Congress’ incentive structure is.
The process itself encourages action (just barely) on discretionary spending, but tolerates complete inaction on mandatory spending. If Congress cannot complete the appropriations process on time (as has been the case every year since 1996), it can extend the process indefinitely, but at the very least, failure to act will result in a government shutdown. Regardless of how long the process lasts, mandatory spending continues to grow unchecked every year.
Politically, the debate over spending revolves around how much to increase spending. Virtually every discretionary program increases with inflation every year. So, according to Washington’s Alice in Wonderland rules, even a spending “freeze” can be portrayed as a cut.
In contrast, the debate over mandatory spending reform has focused on how much to cut, creating political discord among lawmakers and special interests. As a result, many members of Congress fear the political consequences of addressing or even discussing mandatory spending.
Finally, political leadership makes a difference. Telling the truth about fiscal situations is difficult, especially when hard truths are involved.
Our country has dug itself a very deep hole. Unchecked spending, especially under the Biden administration, is currently causing the debt to skyrocket by $850 billion every 100 days. As a result, interest payments are the fastest growing part of the federal government. Currently, about 60 cents of every dollar the government borrows goes to paying interest on the debt.
Imagine a family having to continually take out new loans to survive, with almost two-thirds of those loans going towards paying interest on previous loans. This is the reality we face.
It’s another summer of long days and hot nights over funding our government. But as we watch our televisions, we must remember that the noise is blocking out the louder signals right in front of us. It’s time for Congress to do more than worry about a tiny percentage of federal spending. Ignoring the mandatory aspects of the budget will leave us completely unprepared for looming fiscal challenges in the future.
We need more leaders in Washington to sound the alarm, educate the public, lay out plans, and unite to find solutions to this growing economic and moral crisis before it’s too late.
Jody Arrington is the chairman of the House Budget Committee.
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