Don’t call it a “vibe session”
If Joe Biden loses his bid for a second term as president, the state of the economy and his economic policies will almost certainly go down in the history books as the main reason why voters turned against him.
this is Making progressives mad with frustration Because they are convinced that the American people have it all wrong: in their minds the economy is doing fine, and everyone would be very happy with Biden’s economic leadership if it weren’t for some collective delusion.
Recently, they have tried to explain the disconnect between their view of the economy and that of the public by arguing that the public thinks they are doing well. But in abstract, they are pessimistic about the economy.As Paul Krugman recently argued, people are “believing the story” that things are going wrong.
I realize that I may not have summarized in one place what I consider to be important points about the negative outlook on the economy. There are four basic facts:
1. People are disappointed with the economy
2. I am pretty positive about my financial situation.
3. They are relatively positive about…— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) June 12, 2024
Only the view that people believe a story about bad things happening to strangers (whom they don’t know) explains all four of these. You can debate where that story came from, but it applies to all the facts in a way that the other stories don’t. 3/
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) June 12, 2024
The problem with this view is People are not very satisfied with their financial situationIn the latest survey, economist The YouGov survey also found that 46.6% of US voters say their family’s financial situation is worse than it was a year ago, compared with just 15% who say it is better, and 37.2% who say their family’s financial situation is about the same.
When asked about the economy in general, people tend to be more pessimistic but also more optimistic. 55% say the economy is getting worseHowever, 21% say the situation is improving, and 21% say the situation is about the same.
Looking at these figures by party: Expected partisan divisionsRepublicans are significantly more likely to say their household finances have gotten worse over the past year (67.9%) than they are to say they have gotten better (4.9%). And when it comes to the economy in general, 82.3% say the situation has gotten worse, while only 2.8% say it has gotten better.
Republicans have a pretty pessimistic view of what’s happened to their own families. And an even more pessimistic view of what’s going on in the economy as a whole.That is completely different from the idea advocated by Krugman and others.
President Joe Biden (right) meets with economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman in the Oval Office on Aug. 14, 2023. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)
But will Democrats necessarily take an opposing stance? Not really. Just over 25.7% of Democrats said the situation has improved. Nearly as many say they have done something to help their families in the past year, 23.3 percent, to say things have gotten worse.Contrary to Krugman’s views, Democrats are more positive about the economy in general than they are about their household finances, with 41.3 percent saying the economy is improving and 26.8 percent saying it is getting worse.
That is, only a quarter of Democrats have a positive view of the progress of their personal financial situation, and two-fifths have a positive view of the direction of the economy.
how is it IndependentIn a close election year, this is a group whose opinions could be decisive. Just under 48% of respondents said their personal situation has gotten worse, while 13.7% said it has gotten better. When it comes to the economy in general, 59.2% say it has gotten worse, while 15.1% say it has gotten better.
That’s inflation, idiot
The point here is that while there is certainly partisanship, and groups that feel things are worse than they were a year ago are more likely to say the economy is worse, too, there isn’t a huge gap between how people feel about their lives and the economy. It seems to be helping Biden. That’s because Democrats, who are roughly evenly split on their own financial situations, respond much more positively when asked about the economy in general.
Another noteworthy point from this poll is Public opinion on the economy is becoming more negative Over the past year, 41.5% of registered voters say things have gotten worse economically and 49.7% say the economy is getting worse. As mentioned earlier, now 46.6% say things have gotten worse economically and 55% say the economy is getting worse.
There is no need to tell stories or social maladies to explain this. The simplest explanation lies in economic fundamentals. June 2023, Consumer prices It rose 3.1% over the past 12 months, down from 9% a year earlier. The latest Consumer Price Index showed prices were up 3.3% from a year earlier.
Or look at the job market.A year ago the unemployment rate was 3.6%. It is now 4%. As of June 2023, there were 9.1 million job openings. The latest data shows that there are now about 8.1 million.
In other words, not only has inflation stopped growing; The situation has worsened over the past year.
It’s no wonder Biden’s approval ratings have worsened, especially on the economy. economistAccording to a YouGov poll, a year ago 43% of people approved of Biden’s economic policies, while 50% disapproved – a 7-point drop in his approval rating. 37% in favor, 53% againstThis resulted in a 16-point economic deficit.
Digging a little deeper, the demographics of declining approval of Biden’s economic policies paint an even worse picture for Democrats. A year ago, 65% of black voters approved of Biden’s economic policies, while 26% disapproved, giving him a net approval rating of 39%. Now, approval has fallen to 49% and disapproval has risen to 38%. He was given a net approval rating of just 11 points.Hispanic approval rating remained unchanged at minus 11, with 39 approvals and 50 disapprovals.
Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media argue that Biden has a problem with a “negative perception” of the economy. That’s wishful thinking. The problem isn’t the perception. It’s the economy.
