Gaza is just one front in a broader conflict between Iran and Israel that is already shifting north into Lebanon. A senior Israeli official recently said: caveat This suggests that all-out war between Israel and Iran’s powerful proxy, Hezbollah, is becoming a question of when, not if.
Shortly after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Israeli leaders warned that Hezbollah 150,000 rockets They discussed how Russia, with its arsenal of weapons and precision-guided weapons, might strike next, but ultimately decided not to preempt an attack and retaliate.
Israel’s fears are not unfounded: Over the past eight months, Hezbollah has fired some 5,000 rounds of short-range ammunition at nearby Israeli communities, a toll that is becoming increasingly intolerable.
Several 80,000 Israelis (equivalent to about 3 million Americans) have been forced or have chosen to flee their homes in the north, while the deaths (18 soldiers and at least 9 civilians) and damage are the largest in recent history. Forest fireis included.
Israel is trying to punish Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and surrounding areas and allow Israelis to return to their homes in the north by creating a buffer zone of up to 13 kilometers (8 miles) but has yet to reach a deal with Hezbollah, brokered by the United States.
Even if the fighting in the north stops, the calm may not last long. After October 7, Israel is no longer willing or able to coexist with genocidal Iranian-backed terrorists on its border, especially those with an arsenal of rockets capable of overwhelming Israeli air defenses, raining destruction on the country, and protecting Iran’s nuclear program.
Would it be better for Israel to act sooner or later?
The soon-to-be argument is that Israel must allow its citizens to return to their northern homes out of a sense of obligation and because forcing Jews out would undermine the Jewish state’s founding promise that Jews could live safely anywhere within its borders.
Iran’s nuclear progress is another compelling reason why Israel must act quickly against Hezbollah.
With Tehran now capable of enriching enough fissile material for a bomb in under two weeks, Israel may not be able to wait any longer to prevent Iran from going nuclear. But it may first need to eliminate Hezbollah’s rockets, which would allow Iran to retaliate against Israeli attacks. Hezbollah may not want to face significant Israeli destruction to protect Iran’s nuclear program, which would make Israeli precautions unnecessary, but it is likely to heed Tehran’s wishes.
But Israel also has good reasons to wait before escalating its attacks against Hezbollah, one of which is the urgency of ending the fighting in Gaza and liberating the remaining Hezbollah.116 Israeli hostages.Israel does not want to expand its military power and further strain its arms stockpiles by waging a war in the north and south simultaneously.
Israel, too, needs to rest, reset and refuel. Eight months of war, with hundreds of thousands of reservists mobilised, have tested Israeli society and economy. Israel also wants to replenish its arsenal before it plunges into a very tough war in Lebanon. Moreover, in the next year or two, Israel’s innovative laser-based missile defence system,Iron beamhas come online and could help blunt Hezbollah rocket attacks.
Israel may want to wait until after the November U.S. presidential election before going to war with Hezbollah. Israel will likely need U.S. military supplies, political support, and help with Iran, but it cannot rely on such U.S. assistance at this time.
From Dearborn to Tehran, it is clear that the White House believes continued fighting between Israel and Hamas would hurt President Biden’s reelection, and that a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be even more politically damaging. Biden may feel liberated after the election. A win for Donald Trump could give Israel more room to campaign.
A strong Israel, a nuclear-free Iran, and a secure Middle East are vital U.S. interests. These interests are likely to be achieved with full U.S. support for Israeli preventive military action against Hezbollah. The prospect of a U.S.-backed Israel taking on Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran’s nuclear program, may be the only thing that quiets both Hezbollah’s guns and Tehran’s centrifuges.
But if war becomes necessary, U.S. support would help Israel restore the deterrent it lost after October 7, weaken Hezbollah, prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear brink, and expand regional peace agreements.
Sooner or later, Israel will have to decide whether to go to war with Hezbollah, and the United States must always stand by Israel’s side to ensure a sure victory that protects Israel and advances American interests.
Former Pentagon official Michael Makovsky is president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). Blaze Mistal is JINSA’s vice director for policy.
