The Giants needed more explosiveness at wide receiver, so they drafted Malik Neighbors, who comes to New York as one of the best big-play prospects in recent memory.
The dynamic wide receiver finished his junior season at LSU with 89 catches for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns, featuring plenty of highlight plays.
According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception Profile, Neighbors has an 84th percentile success rate against man coverage and a 78th percentile success rate against press coverage, highlighting his huge potential to not be a slot-only receiver in the NFL.
Neighbors also broke tackles on 20.5 percent of his routes in space, the best mark among the past four draft classes.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value of betting on Neighbours in 2024 lies.
Projected Yards and Touchdowns
Caesars Sportsbook currently projects Neighbors’ rookie season totals to be 5.5 receiving touchdowns and 850.5 receiving yards.
He became the 12th wide receiver to be drafted in the top 10 after declaring early since 2010. Excluding John Ross, who was injured and finished with zero receptions as a rookie, the other 10 averaged 63.2 catches, 950.6 yards and 6.5 touchdowns.
All but one of the 10 receivers will exceed Neighbors’ current receiving yardage line, and six will exceed his TD prop.
Following Darren Waller’s retirement, New York has little competition for targets outside of Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson.
Neighbors has a chance to be the clear leader out of this group right from the get-go, and I currently project him to finish the season with 71 receptions, 1,019 yards and six touchdowns.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
With six quarterbacks selected in the first round, the competition for Offensive Rookie of the Year is sure to be heated.
Neighbors (18/1) is tied for fifth on the DraftKings odds board behind Caleb Williams (+135), Jayden Daniels (+600), Marvin Harrison Jr. (+700) and J.J. McCarthy (13/1).
The OROY award is not as quarterback-dominant as the MVP award.
In the past 10 seasons, four quarterbacks, three running backs and three wide receivers have won Rookie of the Year honors.
The last wide receiver to win the award was Garrett Wilson, to whom Neighbors has made comparisons based on his superior work in space.
Of course, many will compare Neighbors to Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants’ last Offensive Rookie of the Year.
OBJ caught 91 passes for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns during his rookie season in 2014.
Neighbors, also a Louisiana State University product, is hoping to follow in Beckham’s footsteps and pursue Pro Bowl honors in his rookie season.
Williams is the obvious favorite in this market, and if the Bears make the playoffs as I expect, Williams might be the sure thing.
Still, with odds of 18/1, I think it’s well worth taking on Neighbours in an attack that will force them into a target.
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Best bets for Malik Neighbors’ rookie season
Barring the always unpredictable injuries, Neighbours should have a great season.
Many will point to Daniel Jones as the limiting factor in his success, but Jones led the NFL in adjusted pass completion percentage of 80.1 percent in 2022 (his last fully healthy season).
Brian Daboll should be able to put Jones and Neighbors in a stable position to succeed.
The Giants were 29th in defensive success rate last year, so they’re likely to lose a lot of games this season.
This should create a positive, pass-heavy game script.
Neighbours has great talent and every opportunity to make the most of a very favourable environment.
Recommendation:
Malik Neighbors has over 850.5 receiving yards (-112, BetRivers)
Malik Neighbors to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1800, DraftKings)
