President Biden and former President Trump will face off in a debate on Thursday that will be a pivotal moment in the race for the White House.
Despite low voter enthusiasm, lawmakers and experts expect Americans to turn out in large numbers for Thursday’s debate, with the candidate who performs better potentially scoring a big win as the race enters its final stages.
Both candidates face serious doubts from voters about their fitness for office due to issues related to their age and temperament, and Biden in particular needs a game-changing moment as he trails Trump in the polls in battleground states.
“I think this is going to be really important,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-Va.).
“This has happened with other candidates too. It’s a huge risk because if you don’t answer the question correctly or you misspeak, your answer has very serious consequences,” she said.
Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have officially qualified to debate Thursday. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not qualify, making the first debate a repeat of the 2020 presidential debate.
Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, are facing a debate with opinion polls showing them nearly neck and neck, underscoring the importance of the moment.
Tebi Troy, a presidential historian at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said that despite low enthusiasm, Americans will still watch television to gauge the candidates’ mental fitness.
“Even if people are not enthusiastic about a candidate, we want to see if there’s a meltdown on stage. There could be two kinds of meltdowns: Trump could have an anger meltdown and Biden could have an age meltdown,” he said.
Thursday’s presidential debate will be the first since 1984 that is not hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates. And prior to this year, there hadn’t been a televised general election debate since the commission’s creation in 1960 until late September, making Thursday’s debate truly unique and leaving people wondering what it means for a Biden-Trump rematch.
“That’s the unknown,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), adding that early voting has pushed the debate earlier in the calendar, noting that Virginia holds debates between governors and senators in July, months before early voting begins in mid-September.
“Having a debate in October doesn’t make much sense,” Kaine added. “We need to move it up just to accommodate states that are voting early.”
Others point to the increased interest being fuelled by the fact that there are only two debates, one next week and one in September – the vice presidential debate is also scheduled, but that is typically given less importance than the top events.
“I think that with only two candidates and the discussion and the talk about how prepared they are for both candidates, people are going to be looking at how Biden performs, how crazy Trump is going to be, so I think there’s going to be a lot of interest in the debate,” said former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.).
Biden goes into the debate under pressure to get a much-needed boost in the polls after failing to close the gap on Trump following his conviction in the New York hush-money trial, with Trump holding slim leads in key battleground states following the verdict. New pollThe former president has a 0.6 percentage point lead over Biden, according to an Emerson College poll/The Hill. Public opinion poll resultsFrom Decision Desk HQ/The Hill.
The debate could be a loss for Biden and could determine the entire election, CNN’s Van Jones argued Thursday.
“To me, this is what the election is all about,” he said. “If Biden goes on the campaign and fails, it’s game over. If he goes on the campaign and his approval ratings go down a week later, there’s panic in the party. But if he goes on the campaign and can take on Donald Trump, the runaway train, the locomotive, the raging bull, then he deserves another chance to be president, because it’s going to be tough.”
Opinions vary as to how many Americans will tune in, but some, like Capito, expect a “huge audience” comparable to the first meeting between President Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Others, like Troy, argue that attendance may be lower than other debates because there are other ways Americans can access parts of the debate, such as TikTok or social platform X.
“Now, if there’s a great moment, or a gaffe, or a panic, everyone sees it on social media, even if they weren’t watching it live,” Troy said. “I think even if the audience is small, it can have a big impact.”
The importance of debates in terms of changing voter mindsets is an ongoing debate in political circles, with experts pointing out that some debates are a big part of history while others are just a blip in the overall election cycle.
“There’s a general question of how important the debate actually was. There are structural elements to an election that determine what happens in an election, and did the debate really change that?” Troy said.
He noted that Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) performed well in his first debate with President Barack Obama in 2012, but ultimately lost. But debates have been important at other times, such as in 1984, when President Reagan famously said he “won’t take advantage” of Vice President Walter Mondale’s “youth and inexperience.”
Still, Thursday’s debate marks the first major moment of the campaign ahead of both national conventions.
“This is a big thing,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told The Hill. “I’m excited to see it. We know who the nominees are going to be. Let’s let them butt heads. I’m all for it. It’s a good thing. Let’s get it out there and let them talk to each other.”
Warren argued that the early event would be beneficial for Biden’s bid for a second term because it would “give everyone a chance to see Donald Trump up close and personal.”
“I think this is going to be the biggest problem going forward. [election],” she said.
“I just want to remind people who these two are,” she continued. “If this debate conveys a sense of who they are at their core, then I’ll be pretty happy.”
