The Dobbs decision two years ago woke Democrats and reproductive rights activists, and the dramatic changes made possible by the Supreme Court’s action were immediately inspiring.
The decision flipped the battle in one fell swoop, galvanized abortion rights supporters, and became an election issue, and since then the anti-abortion movement has been grappling with a new, perhaps unexpected, reality: The public largely supports abortion rights and opposes major efforts to ban or restrict abortion.
“This is an issue that will determine whether or not the candidates are ranked high, because there’s such a stark contrast and voters think they can solve it themselves,” said Celinda Lake, one of Biden’s lead pollsters in 2020. “It’s a yes or no issue.”
At the same time, Republicans are struggling to put together a messaging strategy for their next move.
“We see differences among anti-abortion advocates, but what I do know is that they clearly want to eliminate access to abortion, and differences are how they get there,” said Novez Flint, executive director of the abortion rights group All Above All.
“So I wouldn’t categorize this as confusion. I would categorize it as them trying to figure out how to get their message across,” Flint said.
Abortion rights activists said they feel the group of supporters is much larger and better organized now than before Dobbs.
While many sought to sound the alarm about a concerted conservative effort to overturn Roe, some acknowledged they had been caught off guard.
“You know, one of the things we’ve been thinking about since Dobbs and since Roe is, what is the best strategy for engaging and activating people who care about this issue when we’re not in a crisis situation,” said Lupe M. Rodriguez, executive director of the National Latina Reproductive Justice Institute.
Reproductive rights groups say they have made efforts to learn how to keep voters engaged in every election since Roe, and they hope 2024 will be no different.
“We’ve learned a lot about how to work with people over the long term and really find ways to bring these issues to people’s attention,” Rodriguez said.
Meanwhile, anti-abortion activists are finding their priorities are being ignored by the politicians they have long supported and influenced, as Republicans conclude that their tough anti-abortion policies are being used to undermine candidates in key elections for political expediency.
Republican lawmakers and candidates, including former President Trump, now say abortion decisions should be left to individual states, a stark departure from previous efforts to restrict abortion at the federal level.
Anti-abortion groups say they are disappointed by the comments but remain committed to helping get Republicans elected.
One of the most influential groups, SBA Pro-Life America, wants to spend at least $92 million reaching out to 10 million voters in battleground states this election cycle. Their message is that Democrats want to repeal abortion bans and pass laws that guarantee access to abortion at any stage of pregnancy.
Following the surprising success of pro-abortion Democratic candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans in 2024 are faced with a choice: either double down on restrictions or walk away from the issue.
Indeed, Republicans rank abortion as a much lower priority than inflation, crime and immigration.
Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said support for the issue would improve if it was used as a standalone ballot issue rather than as an attack on the popular Republican candidate.
For example, five statewide votes in 2022 ended up supporting abortion rights, even in Republican-leaning states like Kentucky and Montana, but conservative anti-abortion governors also won in Ohio and Georgia.
“I think [abortion] “It’s an important and powerful issue for Democrats, but it’s not just a single issue that will drive voters’ big choices, so it may influence but it won’t be decisive,” Franklin said.
Democrats are hoping to keep up the pressure on Republicans and build on their successes from 2022.
Democrats have been uniting their messaging in the wake of restrictive abortion laws in states like Arizona, Alabama and Florida that were passed by Republicans but made possible only by Supreme Court justices under President Donald Trump who overturned Roe v. Wade.
Access to abortion is a patchwork of state laws and court decisions, with about 20 states banning or restricting abortion. Abortion advocates want to align the experiences of women in those states entirely with the Republican Party.
“Every time it feels like this issue is fading, we hear a new story about how it’s impacting people’s lives, their health, their chances of having a healthy pregnancy,” said Cecil Richards, a former president of Planned Parenthood and co-chair of the liberal super PAC American Bridge 21st Century. “The Republican Party has taken unsustainable and untenable positions on these issues, and I think they’re going to be held accountable.”
In the Senate, Democrats are seeking to highlight Republican opposition to reproductive rights by holding votes on issues such as in vitro fertilization, access to contraception and abortion rights.
“They’re trying to remind everyone where each party stands, which is widely seen as a Democratic strength and not an area Republicans like to use right now because there are so many other issues where we’re leading – the economy, immigration, foreign policy, energy,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist and co-founder of Rock Solutions.
Senate Republicans earlier this month tried to pass a bill that would incentivize politicians not to pass bills banning IVF but would not prevent courts from restricting the procedure, but were blocked by Democrats.
Senate Republicans also signed a pledge saying they “strongly support” nationwide access to IVF, despite Republican efforts in states like Alabama to block it.
Democrats say they will go into November unified on their message regarding abortion rights.
“Republicans are divided on everything from the six-week abortion ban to in vitro fertilization, and seem particularly reluctant to settle on something that satisfies all sides. Democrats are united on these issues and on preserving a woman’s reproductive rights and right to choose,” said former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.).
“When it comes to deep-rooted beliefs that engage voters, this is one of those issues that has done so year after year,” he added.
