The only person happier than Donald Trump after tonight’s presidential debate is Vice President Kamala Harris, and given President Biden’s abysmal performance, not replacing him as the top Democratic candidate would be the most significant political blunder of all.
From the start, as he stalked uneasily to the stage, Biden was awful. As Trump spoke, CNN’s shot of the pair was brutal. Biden was hunched over, mouth agape, stunned. His voice was hoarse and shaky. If the purpose of the early debates and the Biden campaign’s bad rules was to test an alternative to Biden, that was accomplished.
The restrictions worked to Trump’s advantage that night, as he was backed by the crowd and had no room to be disrupted. The former president delivered a brilliant rebuttal, saying Biden couldn’t claim credit for the COVID-19 “bounce back” recovery. Not surprisingly, Trump had the better rhetoric, while Biden’s “nonsense” was as old and worn as he was.
The stakes were high for both candidates in the debate. Old and unpopular, Serious questions were raised about their mental health. A campaign that had been frozen for months was most likely to move with this debate. The man most at risk was Biden. His numbers on age and mental health were terrible, and his numbers on the issues were even worse.
But Trump was also at risk. Questions remain about his own temperament and acumen. But whereas Biden was unable to complete his State of the Union address without multiple blunders, even while reading from a teleprompter, Trump’s experience with improvisation and decades of trading blows with and attacking the media made him more likely to fudge the issue.
For Biden, the best moment of the night was when Trump was dragged into the quagmire of his own legal troubles and the events of January 6th. The former president had a nice line: “My reward is success.” The problem for Biden was that this part was jammed in the middle of the night. At that point, the audience had already seen and heard the disastrous first 30 minutes, significantly limiting any advantage Biden had. What’s worse for Biden is that Trump’s legal problems are a secondary issue for voters compared to inflation and immigration.
Of course, Trump exaggerated things and they will be thoroughly fact-checked, but he spoke with confidence — and, for that matter, Biden has made some bombastic statements, too.
Regardless, tonight’s debate marked the end of Joe Biden’s political career.
Harris Time
The real question now is how long it will take to push Biden aside and replace him with Kamala Harris. It may take a few bad polls before reality sinks in for Biden’s delusional team, but the move has to happen. And at this point in the game, there is no one better capable of filling that role than Kamala Harris.
Only VP Harris has the name recognition and platform to enter the race; no senator or representative has the name recognition or stature to do so. Of the 2020 primary candidates, Bernie Sanders is older than Biden, and Elizabeth Warren is 75. Pete Buttigieg failed in his 2022 tryout. As governors, Gavin Newsom and JB Pritzker will have a hard time transitioning to a national campaign (not to mention California’s problems are not in Newsom’s favor).
Harris’ approval rating isn’t as high, but it’s no worse than Biden’s. RealClearPolitics average approval rating Harris’ approval rating is -15 points, while the president’s is slightly higher at -15.6 points (as of this writing). There aren’t many detailed polls on Harris, but that will surely change in the future.
Recent Politico/The Morning Consult poll looked more closely at VP Biden. The results were less striking and appear to simply track the partisan divide in the country. Voters were asked whether they trusted Harris on a range of issues. Her trust in her dropped off 45% to 46% on the economy and 40% to 50% on immigration. She was more positive on protecting Medicare/Social Security 47% to 44% and abortion 51% to 40%, issues where Democrats have strong support.
How will she handle Trump? Most Recent A national poll conducted by Emerson in February showed Trump leading Harris 46% to 43%. RealClearPolitics National Poll Average Trump leads 46.6 percent to 45.1 percent.
Recent YouGov PollHarris’ approval rating is 37 percent and her disapproval rating is 54 percent, while Biden’s approval rating is 39 percent and his disapproval rating is 58 percent. Among independents, Harris’s approval rating is minus 37 points and Biden’s disapproval rating is minus 41 points, making them slightly more favorable.
In terms of leadership, Trump outperforms both, but Harris outperforms Biden. Harris remains negative, with 44% thinking she is a strong leader and 55% not. Biden is down 35% to 65%. She also has a good 15% support among independents. Harris also doesn’t have Biden’s mental health or age issues.
Replacing Harris is essential for the Democratic Party. 159 Presidential Scholars It should be approved.
Keith NortonHe is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.
