President Biden’s debate debacle has Republican leaders in New York and New Jersey in euphoria, as they believe former President Donald Trump could become the first Republican in 40 years to win both states.
Even if he is unlikely to win in Democratic-held states, party officials and independent analysts expect Trump to have enough influence in the suburbs to help Republican incumbents in the House of Representatives defend seats they won in 2022 or even add to them.
“Trump can win New York just like Ronald Reagan did in 1980,” said New York State Republican Chairman Ed Cox.
A recent Siena College poll showed Trump trailing Biden by single digits, including an 8-point margin in New York state, 47% to 39%, and was conducted a week before the June 25 debate.
Trump campaign insiders claimed that internal polls also showed the race in New Jersey was “50-50.” A Trump rally in Wildwood, southern New Jersey, drew 100,000 supporters.
Cox said Reagan’s victory was due to “stagflation” perpetrated by then-Democratic President Jimmy Carter, and that many voters were similarly suffering from Bidenflation.
“New York, a Democratic stronghold for decades, is within Trump’s reach. With New York being part of Trump’s victory, the conditions are ripe for a political realignment,” he said.
“New York is a blue state, but it’s more blue-collar blue than Upper West Side blue.”
He also said Trump’s campaign focuses on the border immigration crisis, the economy and crime have resonated with frustrated Democratic voters in the Northeast.
“Biden’s debate performance will be a blow to Democrats vying for the New York swing vote,” said O’Brien “OB” Murray, a campaign strategist who has worked for both Republicans and Democrats.
He said it should be easy for first-term Republican Rep. Michael Lawyer to win reelection in the 17th Hudson Valley Congressional District against former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones.
Murray also said Biden’s collapse will make it “much harder” for moderate Democrat John Avlon. – Rudy Giuliani’s former speechwriter – He will defeat first-term Republican Rep. Nick LaLota in the 1st Congressional District, which includes Long Island’s East End and Suffolk County.
Meanwhile, across the Hudson River, New Jersey Republicans say Trump could become the first Republican to win the state since George H.W. Bush defeated Democrat George Dukakis in 1988.
“New Jersey was definitely a hotbed of contention because Biden’s debate performance was so bad that U.S. Senate candidate Curtis Bashaw became the front-runner and Rep. [Tom] “Keene’s reelection just got easier,” said Bill Palatucci, a Republican National Campaign Committee member from New Jersey and a friend of former Gov. Chris Christie.
The New Jersey Republican Party launched a barrage of electronic fundraising efforts immediately after the debate, declaring in bold letters that “New Jersey is at stake.”
“We are working every day to reach out to every New Jersey voter and spread the word that we are fighting to win,” the New Jersey Republican Party said.
“New Jersey is a much more important state this election cycle,” said Doug Muzzio, a New Jersey resident and former Baruch College public policy professor who called Biden’s debate performance a “disaster.”
“This is New Jersey. Strange things happen in New Jersey. It’s not impossible. It’s possible, but it’s unlikely.”
New York Democratic Party – Led by Governor Kathy Hockal – He endorsed Biden despite calls from the liberal New York Times editorial board and even some Democrats who said the 81-year-old Biden should step aside to give another Democrat a chance to challenge Trump.
In an interview on MSNBC on Sunday, Hokel delivered a spirited defense of Biden and urged Democrats to pull themselves together and “get back on the team.”
“If you have a rough night, the next morning defines who you are,” Hokl said.
She claimed Biden was “energetic and fully attentive” when she met with him at the Stonewall National Monument Visitor’s Center in New York on Friday.
“Ignore the opinions of the chattering classes in Washington … and the editorial board. Everyone is talking to themselves that they have the answers.”
Hawkle said Biden is far better for the country than Trump, who voted “convict,” and that a return to the White House would create chaos and a constitutional crisis.
“I say to my friends who are Democrats: wake up today, make a plan, get back on your team and move toward victory,” she said.
Jay Jacobs, chairman of the New York Democratic Party, said Biden had a “bad night” during the debate but that he could bounce back.
“I want to warn Republicans who are euphoric about the loss of Democratic candidate President Biden. I remember being euphoric when the Access Hollywood tapes came out in 2016. I thought Trump was finished,” Jacobs said.
The infamous video shows Trump making lewd comments about women, including saying, “I don’t mind grabbing a woman’s pussy.” It was released a month before the presidential election between Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Trump won the election.
