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France’s right-wing National Rally party gains momentum in first round of elections

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France’s right-wing National Rally party made a major gain in the first round of the country’s general election on Sunday, worrying centrist President Emmanuel Macron and his supporters.

Early projections suggest that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is likely to win an estimated one-third of the vote in the first round, giving her a majority in the lower house for the first time – almost double the 18% she won in the first round in 2022.

French pollsters have suggested that Mr Macron’s centrist coalition could finish a distant third in the first round, lagging behind both the Rally National and a new coalition of left-wing parties that have come together to stop Ms Le Pen’s anti-immigration party from forming the most conservative government since World War II.

Still, the ultimate outcome of the election remains unclear, with the decisive final vote due to take place next Sunday, July 7th.

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French President Emmanuel Macron and First Lady Brigitte Macron leave a polling station in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (Yara Nardi via The Associated Press)

Earlier this month, President Macron dissolved Parliament and called a surprise vote after the Rally National Assembly’s crushing defeat for his party in the European Parliament elections. The move was seen as a risky gamble that French voters, satisfied with the European elections, would back moderates to keep the Rally National out of power.

Many French voters are frustrated with inflation and other economic problems, as well as with a leadership style under President Macron that they see as arrogant and out of touch with reality. Ms. Le Pen’s anti-immigration Rally National party has tapped into that discontent, particularly through online platforms such as TikTok, to lead pre-election opinion polls.

Voters in Paris were faced with a host of issues ranging from immigration to the rising cost of living, with growing divisions between right and left and a deeply unpopular and weakened president at the centre of politics.

Le Pen called on voters to give her party an “absolute majority” in parliament, which she said would allow it to form a new government with party leader Jordan Bardeta as prime minister to tackle the “reconstruction” of France.

Marine Le Pen after voting

Marine Le Pen and local mayor Steve Briois after casting their vote in the parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)

“Following historic conservative victories in the EU elections a few weeks ago, France today reaffirmed the dramatic shift we are seeing in Europe, moving away from a failed left-wing strategy toward common-sense conservative policies centered on lowering taxes, cracking down on illegal immigration and supporting free speech,” Matt Moise, founding director of the EU-US Forum and a former State Department official, told Fox News Digital. “Today’s results send another important message to bureaucrats in Brussels: Europeans want conservative policies and leaders.”

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Turnout on Sunday was unusually high at 59% three hours before the polls closed, 20 percentage points higher than the turnout at the same time in the previous first round of voting in 2022.

The first voting forecast was released after the last polling stations closed. Early official results are due to be announced later on Sunday.

A second round of voting next Sunday will be more decisive, but questions remain about how Macron will share power with a prime minister who is hostile to many of his policies.

Jordan Bardera waiting for an interview

National Rally leader Jordan Bardella waits for an interview to begin with French television station TF1 in Boulogne-Billancourt, just outside Paris, on June 20, 2024. (Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images)

If the Rally National wins, Macron is expected to appoint the party’s leader, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, as prime minister under a tricky power-sharing system known as “coexistence.” Though Macron has said he will not step down as president until his term expires in 2027, coexistence would weaken him both at home and on the international stage.

The outcome of the first round will provide a clear indication of voter sentiment, but not necessarily the overall makeup of the next Parliament. It is difficult to predict because of the complexity of the voting system and because parties may coalesce in some constituencies and withdraw from others between the first and second rounds.

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Bardella, who has no governing experience, said he would use his powers as prime minister to stop Macron from continuing to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons for its war with Russia.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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