A leading expert in baseball analytics believes the game has become too reliant on data.
Sabermetrics pioneer Bill James, author of the widely influential 1980s book Baseball Abstract, I went to X on Tuesday. We will discuss the current state of the sport, focusing on the analytics-driven mindset in baseball.
The former Red Sox adviser said he began studying sabermetrics to focus on “large-scale problems” in baseball and other sports, adding that he and others have had great success in the field.
But the 74-year-old now believes the current version of the game has been “hijacked” and places too much emphasis on “the small details”.
“We had some success with those studies for a time, but then the field was taken over by the computer guys,” he wrote in a thread on X. “The explosion of (and interest in) minute measurements (exit velocity, pitch counts, motion, launch angle, etc.) represents the failure, not the success, of sabermetrics. We’ve reverted to the minute details, as if the clothes had gotten caught in the machine.”“
James did not say which specific “computer people” he was referring to.”
Despite rule changes the league implemented in 2023 (mainly a ban on overshifting the infield) to put more balls in play and, theoretically, result in more hits, the major league average was .242 through Tuesday’s games, below the league-wide average in 1884 (.243).
The decline in offensive power comes as pitchers focus on a variety of data points, including improving velocity and spin rate. Statcast numbers are now available online.
In baseball, three true outcomes (strikeout, walk, home run) have become the norm over the past decade, leading to less on-field action.
James believes people need to look beyond the small details and think about the bigger issues when it comes to analyzing sports on social media.
“The fact is that development of a real understanding of the essential questions that shape games — all games — has essentially stalled,” he added. “Nobody is really addressing those questions or writing about them. At some point, our field has to have the courage to put aside the decimal points and get back to studying the fundamental, big questions that are no different from what we were doing in 1970.”
James, who was detailed in Michael Lewis’ book “Moneyball,” left Boston’s front office in 2019.
