In 2022, Aaron Judge has taken baseball back to an era not seen since the late ’90s and early 2000s, when ESPN would cut other programming off if a player slammed home runs in an at-bat deemed culturally significant. Tulane and University of Houston football fans are probably Having to share half the screen with an at-bat in a regular season baseball game you probably don’t care about; This is proof that there’s nothing like hitting a ton of home runs to capture the hearts of fans across the baseball world.
Judge finished 2022 with a staggering 62 home runs, an unbelievable wRC+ of 209, and an fWAR of 11.2. His 2022 was so good that it would be completely understandable if Judge, who missed time with an injury, “fell off” and had a “normal” season in 2023, finishing with “only” 37 home runs, a wRC+ of 174, and an fWAR of 4.8 in 106 games. That’s a very good season, especially for any player, but it’s not the kind of season where ESPN will interrupt college football games to show you at-bats. That being said, those days may be coming back in September, because Aaron Judge is currently having another incredible season in the major leagues. New York Yankees.
Heading into Wednesday’s game, Judge is batting .321/.440/.718 with a .478 wOBA, .397 Isolated Power, 218 wRC+ (!!!), 32 home runs, and a 6.1 fWAR. There’s so much to say here that it’s mind-boggling. What are you doing with a .718 slugging percentage, sir? That’s almost a .500 wOBA. That’s crazy. Typically, an Isolated Power number of .200 or higher is considered a “serious power hitter,” so how do we evaluate a guy with an Isolated Power number of almost .400? He’s already cleared his 2023 fWAR target with 22 games to go, is five home runs away from matching his 2023 numbers, and the fact that he has a wRC+ above 200 is enough to make this story worthwhile. Aaron Judge is the best hitter on the planet right now. And so far, there’s no real difference between him and his competitors.
It’s pretty impressive that Aaron Judge is on track to have one more double-digit season when it comes to fWAR. While such seasons are rare to begin with, some of the most talented players in baseball are capable of at least a 10 fWAR season if they can continue to perform phenomenally all year. Mike Trout and Mookie Betts immediately come to mind, and Shohei Ohtani could potentially do it as a two-way player in the future. But doing it twice would make Aaron Judge truly unique among baseball greats. There are plenty of Hall of Famers who never surpassed the 10 fWAR mark in a season at any point in their careers, so doing it twice (plus having an otherwise stellar career) would be the closest thing to punching a ticket to Cooperstown.
That may seem odd for a current player to say, but that’s exactly where Aaron Judge is right now. He’s hitting at a Hall of Fame level right now, and he’s done it one season before, so we know it’s not just a one-hit wonder. And some may ask, “If he’s this good and dangerous at the plate, why does he have the ingredients to step up to the plate?” Sure, Aaron Judge is doing well again because he’s receiving a level of defense he’s never received before. And as Mike Petriello says, MLB.com Notably, he comes from in front of him in the lineup, not behind him.
He throws a few more fastballs in the zone with runners on and off, he throws a few more first-pitch fastballs in the zone with runners on and off, and there are a ton of other little things that work in his favor, which is part of why he’s improving his slugging percentage. 203 point increase When the runner is on base. So why not run the risk of getting around the runner and sending him on base? Because now more than ever, someone is already on base.
“What he and Juan are doing together is hard to wrap your head around.” Said Manager Aaron Boone.
So rather than just give Aaron Judge a first base and call it a day, the managers decided it was better to deal with the damage Judge would do to Juan Soto, who was (presumably) already on the basepaths, than potentially exacerbate the problem if they walked Judge and someone behind him happened to do the damage. Basically, because Juan Soto has performed so well in front of Judge (and he’s posted 5.0 fWAR in 83 games so far this season and is on watch for 10 fWAR), it was nearly impossible to put Judge in a situation where the bases were clear and they could basically give Judge a free pass and call it a day. Instead, we can see a scenario similar to what the Mets were dealing with last month against the Yankees.
In the top of the eighth inning, with the Yankees down 9-3, Judge came to bat with the bases loaded and two outs. With a six-run lead at this point, the Mets felt comfortable enough that a grand slam would give them a two-run lead. Mets manager Juan Mendoza admitted to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci after the game: He was thinking of taking the judge for a walk, Instead of conceding a goal and then trying his luck with Gleyber Torres, Mendoza decided to simply play fair with his opponent. Aaron Judge responded:
It doesn’t matter if the count is 0-2 or if the ball is 99 mph, if you throw it to Aaron Judge in that spot, you can’t go wrong. Here’s how it looks on MLB’s Gameday Tracker:
Now, here is a collection of Aaron Judge’s zone charts for this season:
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25517250/judge_pitch_position_graphs.png)
That’s right. Aaron Judge is in incredible form right now, and he’s doing so in an environment that’s conducive to him throwing the ball exactly where he wants it, rather than trying to deflect it. The combination of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge has proven to be absolutely lethal for most teams, and as a result, Aaron Judge himself is likely to have an otherworldly season at the plate.
Nothing is guaranteed, but it really wouldn’t be a surprise if mid-major college football fans were angry at ESPN and Aaron Judge again in September, because Judge seems on track to have another historically great season, and as long as opposing teams feel they have no choice but to try him, Judge will continue to drop the hammer on their heads.
