The idea of American energy independence remains a hot topic, even popping up in recent presidential debates, and everyone seems to have an opinion about it, even though many can’t define what it means.
Establishing consistent terminology
It is important to understand that under a consistent definition of energy independence, each of the following two statements is true:
- If the United States has not achieved energy independence under Joe Biden’s administration, it never achieved energy independence under Donald Trump’s administration.
- If the United States achieved energy independence under Donald Trump’s administration, under Joe Biden’s administration, energy independence has risen to record levels.
Under any scenario, the United States achieved energy independence under the Trump administration and will not lose it under the Biden administration.
Let’s quickly review the concepts: It’s important to establish definitions to ensure we’re talking about the same thing.
Definition 1: Zero imports
There are two ways of thinking about energy independence. One definition is that we don’t import any energy. This is true energy independence. This is called the “zero import definition.”
Given the globalization of energy markets, I don’t think this definition is very useful. The United States imports energy to convert it into products for export. The United States began importing crude oil before 1950, and has imported it every year since.
By this definition, the United States has not achieved energy independence for at least 75 years. This definition highlights how interdependent the world’s energy supplies are and emphasizes that this type of energy independence is neither necessary nor economically desirable.
Therefore, the idea that “President Trump made the United States energy independent” is incorrect under the zero import definition. During President Trump’s term, the United States imported an average of 9.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and finished products. According to the zero import definition, statement 1 above holds true: the United States did not achieve energy independence under either the Trump or Biden administrations.
Definition 2: Energy Surplus
The definition of energy surplus is more useful in my opinion. It defines energy independence as producing more energy than you consume. Based on this definition, the fact that we produce enough to meet our demand means that the US is energy self-sufficient, even if we import energy.
The definition of energy surplus is the one Trump used when he said the United States achieved energy independence during his term in office. Given this definition, in 2019 the United States had an energy surplus for the first time since at least the 1940s. This can be seen in the following graph, where in 2019 the production line slightly exceeded the consumption line for the first time.
Record energy surplus in 2023. Energy Information Administration
Net U.S. energy imports hit an all-time high in 2005 but have been steadily declining since then due to a surge in oil and gas production caused by the shale boom. In 2019, the U.S. became a net energy exporter, a benchmark that led many, including Donald Trump, to declare energy independence.
But this status has not been lost under Joe Biden’s administration. On the contrary, US oil and gas production has continued to grow, as shown in the following graph. In 2022, the net energy surplus reached 5.94 quintillion BTUs (quads), the highest level in at least the past 70 years.
US primary energy production by source Energy Information Administration
I covered this incident a year ago. U.S. energy self-sufficiency reaches highest level in more than 70 yearsBut last week, The EIA updated its figures. Including 2023. (Also, Downward revision for 2022 The result was 5.83 quads, but it was still higher than the excesses recorded under the Trump administration.
The net energy surplus for 2023 would increase to 7.80 quads, the highest figure ever. In 2019, that figure was just 0.61 quads of net energy surplus. Therefore, statement 2 above is true. If we are using energy surplus as a measure of energy independence, then we will have had three consecutive annual surpluses that exceed the annual surpluses of the Donald Trump administration.
Conclusion
In summary, the debate over U.S. energy independence is often muddied by differing definitions and political rhetoric. True energy independence, characterized by zero energy imports, is neither realistic nor reflective of the interconnectedness of global energy markets.
Instead, a more pragmatic definition — producing more energy than is consumed domestically — offers a clearer perspective. Under this metric, the United States has not only achieved but expanded energy independence since 2019, with the surplus growing under both the Trump and Biden administrations.
Steady growth in net energy production, particularly driven by advances in oil and gas extraction technology, signals the strength of the U.S. energy sector. Looking ahead, it is critical that we continue to advance policies that support a secure and resilient energy future for the United States.
Other popular articles from Oilprice.com:
