The Mets should be the buyers.
However, they have a little more time to make a final decision, and if they are in the midst of another slump, their play and the standings will scream out the right path to follow.
If you need another look at just how precarious the NL Wild Card race is, the Mets had a 7.9% chance of making the playoffs by June 2 (Fangraphs) and a 46.9% chance by July 2, but after three straight losses through Saturday, that chance had dropped to 29.3%.
As the race unfolds in real time, how the Mets get information on Edwin Diaz’s return from suspension and how Kodai Senga’s rehab progresses will be crucial in deciding which path to take.
For now, clubs are certainly having discussions and some are willing to make a move, as the Rays did when they traded Aaron Civale to the Brewers, but most are either distracted by the draft on July 14-16 or are delaying gathering more information on who the players are, and perceptions are changing daily.
Consider that the Yankees, like the Mets, need relief pitchers. You know what would have helped increase the number of relief pitchers on the market and bring down their prices? The Yankees not losing three straight games to the Reds. Cincinnati has six free agent relievers in Buck Farmer, Nick Martinez, Lucas Sims, Brent Suter, Justin Wilson and Emilio Pagan (Pagan is on the 60-day disabled list) and a free agent starter in Frankie Montas.
But Yankees president of baseball operations Nick Krall told me during our time at Yankee Stadium that he cares more about his team’s positive run differential than a sub-.500 record, and would-be sellers would need more persuasion.
And the Yankees did nothing to tempt the Reds. In fact, they did the opposite against a Cincinnati team that also featured control-worthy relief pitchers in Fernando Cruz, Alexis Diaz and left-hander Sam Mohl to tempt a championship contender.
Would the defending champion Rangers give up the possibility of a treasure trove of free-agent pitchers such as Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Michael Lorenzen and Kirby Yates? Would the Nationals consider trading for closers Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey (both on one-year deals) in addition to selling one-year journeyman Dylan Floro?
In an ideal world, the Mets would acquire two relief pitchers as soon as possible, one a lefty and one with closer experience in case Diaz continues to flop, and both who could be controlled beyond this season in case the Mets aren’t actually championship contenders in 2024. But few teams can acquire the perfect pitcher at this time of year.
The Mets aren’t in a position to take any big bets, with their bullpen clearly lacking and a relatively moderate deal in July unless they make a sudden move to acquire Oakland’s Mason Miller. Plus, David Stearns will be evaluating the Mets’ current situation, not just 2024. The best 20,000-foot decision would be for the Mets to sell for another year to replenish their inventory and really accelerate their offseason.
But I think they are in a position to buy or sell at the same time. Christian Scott’s promotion and the possible return of Senga could add depth to the Mets’ starting pitching on the market. For example, I don’t think the Rays are out of Wild Card contention and could trade Civale and possibly another starter like Zach Littell, because they brought back Shane Baz to start on Friday and feel Jeffrey Springs is close to returning from elbow surgery and Drew Rasmussen can keep up.
So why do I think the Mets should sell some money (at least two relief pitchers)?
1. In an era when teams with great offenses are few and far between, the Mets are, but that may be an illusion. Jose Iglesias, Luis Torrens and Mark Vientos are not likely to stay in top form. Still, the Mets are scoring with their entire lineup and are more dangerous per inning, as opposed to a team like the Yankees, who feel they can score when Aaron Judge or Juan Soto are active. Only the Dodgers and Phillies average more runs per game in the National League than the Mets.
If you cut that number down to 125 plate appearances (not including Iglesias and Torrens, but including difference-maker Francisco Alvarez), the Mets have eight players with an MLB-best OPS of 110 or higher. They have a real advantage that most of the NL wild-card contenders don’t have.
2. You probably don’t need to ask Greg Maddux to comment on how this starting pitching staff compares to the Braves’, but the promise of Scott’s pitching staff being strong again, joining Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and maybe David Peterson, elevates the Mets’ pitching staff compared to their National League wild-card rivals. It’s also a staff that can limit overexposure. It’s a big jump, no doubt. Scott is a rookie. Senga is coming off a shoulder injury. But there’s potential here.
3. The competition is loose. Even the Braves, who are in first place in the wild card race, aren’t the Braves of the past six years. The Cubs are basically out of contention for the championship. The Nationals aren’t generally considered a big threat. And Pittsburgh still doesn’t have enough good players, even though Paul Skeans is special. If that’s true, that leaves two spots for the Mets, Reds, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Padres and Giants.
Those teams are making similar calculations to the Mets, like the Giants trying to get Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray and Blake Snell healthy enough to join Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks and ace Logan Webb in the starting rotation, or the Diamondbacks waiting for Corbin Carroll to perform like the star that made him the NL champion last season while they watch starters Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez go on the injured list.
4. It’s fun to compete for a championship or make the playoffs. But the Mets haven’t given their fans much of a reason to do that. In their first 62 seasons, the Mets made the playoffs 10 times. In the past 15 seasons, four teams have finished above .500.
Fred Wilpon was criticized 20 years ago for saying the Mets had a goal of “playing meaningful games in September.” But the bigger problem is that he didn’t oversee an organization that could do that consistently. The Mets are good enough to compete. If they’re competitive, they can compete.
The Mets should try to make a buyout to make that happen, barring a steep drop in the next 10 days.
