The judgement is approaching.
Mark your calendars.
It begins Monday night at the Capitol.
There may be a House Democratic Caucus meeting on Tuesday morning, followed by the annual Senate Democratic Caucus lunch on Tuesday afternoon.
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President Biden spoke at a campaign rally in Madison, Wisconsin. (Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The settlement is expected on Wednesday and possibly Thursday.
The process will reveal where Democrats stand with President Biden and may even reveal whether he will continue in the race or drop out.
They say timing is everything, and the timing certainly couldn’t have come at a worse time for Biden and congressional Democrats in just over a week.
President Biden and his fellow Democrats have had to start thinking in 2021, and even 2022, about whether the president is truly a “transitional figure” (as Biden himself put it) or whether it’s time to choose someone else — not after the party has made it through the primaries. Despite the presidential campaign’s insistence on the date and format of the recent debate on CNN, there was no need for another kind of debate until the earliest presidential debate in American history.
It turned out to be bad timing.
But the timing issue only grew.
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President Biden speaks in Madison, Wisconsin. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)
The worst part for Democrats is that the House met last Friday, just hours after a political brownfield that doubled as a debate stage in Atlanta, meaning that congressional reporters spent all of Friday morning hounding every House Democrat they could think of in the hallways of Congress, peppering them with questions about Biden’s performance.
Democratic senators have never been more pleased that the Senate was recessed for the day. In fact, the Senate hadn’t met at all last week.
The worst political moment for Biden was the recess of both the House and the Senate last week. Democrats were shaken by the president’s debate performance. But the fact that Democrats only had to endure one day of tough questioning from reporters on Capitol Hill bought Biden time he didn’t have. Congress doesn’t reconvene until Monday, intensifying fears about the president, but the recess eased those concerns and briefly halted calls for Biden to potentially step down.
A senior House Democratic source said those close to the president “have not served him well,” adding that “this is not sustainable.”
Democrats were panicking about how Biden’s possible win would affect their chances of keeping the Senate and taking control of the House.
Democrats initially avoided reporters after Biden’s gaffe last weekend.
“I have no comment,” Rep. Adriano Espaillat, Democrat of New York, said as he walked down the Capitol steps and straight back to his car.
“No comment after the worst presidential debate performance of any president in history?” I countered.
“I’m with Pop-Pop,” Espaillat replied, referring to Biden.
Rep. Bill Keating (D-Mass.) dodged the question, saying he was on a “12 o’clock flight.”
I asked Keating whether Biden should remain on the ballot.
Keating responded that the decision “is up to the president,” adding that Biden has not sought “his advice.”
Democrats’ hopes in the Senate may hinge on restoring split-party voting.
Rep. Matt Cartwright at a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pennsylvania) said Democrats “don’t need to overreact” to the president’s actions, and argued that “it’s a big leap” for Democrats who want to remove Biden from the running.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) gave a firm “no” when asked if the president should withdraw, but it’s clear he and other Democratic leaders are listening to their caucus and gauging where they stand on the president.
But Jeffries added later that day that he would “refrain from making any comment on the situation at this time other than to say that I endorse the candidate.”
As Jeffries says, everything in politics is relative, so we could see more comments from the House Minority Leader and others soon, depending on how congressional Democrats position themselves on Biden.
Democrats would have to make a big effort to break away from Biden. Biden’s delegates are currently only loyal to him, but the party plans to force them to pledge their loyalty to Biden in a virtual list vote on August 7. For now, the party can only replace its candidate after August 7 due to death, resignation or disability.
Rep. Jim Clyburn, a former House Majority Whip and deputy Democratic leader credited with saving Biden’s struggling 2020 campaign and propelling him to victory in the Palmetto State, called the debate a “blowout” for Biden.
“If this were a baseball game, he’d have two more swings,” Clyburn said.
But this is more than just a game. This is the presidency.
“I don’t know what I’m going to do in this game,” Clyburn said.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, also discussed the possibility of invoking the 25th Amendment, which allows the vice president, the Cabinet, and potentially a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress to remove a president from office if he is deemed unable to fulfill his duties.
“That decision is up to Cabinet to make and I would ask ministers to do some soul searching,” Johnson said.
Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas introduced a resolution on the 25th Amendment before the adjournment, and votes on the amendment and presidential powers are possible when lawmakers return to Washington in the coming days.
What happens next at the Capitol is going to be absolutely epic.
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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Essence Cultural Festival in New Orleans. (Christiana Botich, The Washington Post via Getty Images)
One thing to note is the position of California Democrats. Of the 213 members of the House Democratic Caucus, 40 are California Democrats. That’s about 19%. That’s 9% of the 432 members of the House (there are 3 vacancies). And let’s not forget that VP Harris is a Californian and has served as a senator from California.
If California Democrats begin to move against Biden, there’s no way they won’t align themselves with Harris.
“If the White House or the administration or the president doesn’t have a conversation with members of Congress and senators about (Biden’s feasibility), then maybe a lot of people will start speaking out,” Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., told Fox News.
“Let Biden keep campaigning,” said Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif. “He’s shown since the debate that he’s more than capable.”
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But that could all change when lawmakers return to Washington in the coming days, and Democrats are likely to make a decision.
