A new poll conducted in the key Midwestern battleground state of Wisconsin following the June 27 debate between President Biden and former President Trump shows the Republican candidate with a five-point lead over the incumbent Democratic president.
AARP’s poll released Tuesday also showed Biden’s support in Wisconsin, behind only Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is leading Republican opponent Eric Hovde in a key Senate race.
A poll conducted by Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward and Democratic pollster Impact Research for AARP found that Trump is leading Biden among Wisconsin voters, 50% to 45%.
If third-party and independent presidential candidates are included, Trump leads Biden 44% to 38%, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3%.
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President Biden spoke at a campaign rally in Madison, Wisconsin on July 5, 2024. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
of AARP Survey Trump leads Biden by 7 points among voters over 50. Among voters under 50, both candidates’ vote percentages are within the margin of error, but Baldwin leads Hovde by 14 points among that demographic.
The poll was conducted between June 28 and July 2, after the debate and before the president held a rally in Madison, Wisconsin last Friday.
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The release of the new poll comes days after a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey in Wisconsin suggested Biden holds a low single-digit lead over Trump.
Wisconsin, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, form the so-called “Blue Wall” that has contributed to Democratic victories in presidential elections for 30 years, but in the 2016 presidential election, Trump narrowly won all three states.
Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump walks to the podium during a campaign event, Tuesday, June 18, 2024, in Racine, Wisconsin. (Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press)
But Biden narrowly won all three states in 2020, defeating Trump to win the White House.
The poll’s release comes less than a week before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
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The new survey is the latest to show warning signs for Biden: Several national polls conducted entirely after the debate and released last week contained a number of red flags for the president, including Trump’s widening single-digit lead over Biden and growing public concern about whether Biden is up to the task of running the country.
President Biden and former President Trump will face off in a debate on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Getty Images)
Coming off a grueling performance in his first head-to-head debate with Trump a week and a half ago, Biden has been trying to prove he still has the stamina and agility to handle the toughest, most demanding job in the world — and the mental fortitude to beat Trump.
The debate was a major setback for Biden, who at 81 is the oldest president in U.S. history. His halting speech and halting answers in the Atlanta debate caused widespread panic within the Democratic Party, and calls, both public and private, for him to step down as 2024 presidential candidate grew within the party.
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