The economy is important after all
The latest polls show Republicans in a favorable position. Voter dissatisfaction with inflation and the U.S. economyAnd these issues could prove decisive in November.
But Republicans shouldn’t let their guard down: Democrats are actually gaining a bit of an advantage.
According to our friends at Rasmussen Reports: 91% of voters say the economy is important Sixty-eight percent of people say the economy will be very important in this year’s presidential election.
Republicans have an overwhelming advantage By people who say the economy will be very important. 59% of voters Among respondents who believe the economy is very important in this year’s election, 32 percent say they have more trust in Republicans, compared with 32 percent who say they trust Democrats.
Among the voters, Republicans lead on economic issuesBut the gap is not as wide as it used to be, and it’s actually narrowing: Republicans had a 13-point lead in April, with 51% backing Republicans and 38% backing Democrats. In a June poll released this week, 48% said they trusted Republicans more, while 41% said they trusted Democrats more.
The demographics are interesting and promising for Republicans, not just in this election but for the future: 54% of white voters trust Republicans on economic policy, compared to 36% for Democrats. Among Hispanics, Republicans lead 50% to Democrats 40%. Increase in Hispanic votes for the Republican PartyIt will be harder for Democrats to win national and state office going forward.
Black voters still overwhelmingly trust Democrats, with just 25% backing the Republican Party and 62% backing the Democrats, but this is not as skewed as it once was.
There Gender disparity in economic issuesBut it favors Republicans. Men and women are equally likely to say the economy is important in this year’s election: 52 percent of men say Republicans are better at the economy, compared with 37 percent who say Democrats are better. Among female voters, the two parties are tied at 44 percent. If you can win over the men and you can win over the women, you win the election.
Why Voters Trust Republicans on Inflation
The same is true if we focus on inflation. 84% of voters believe inflation will be an important issue Sixty-one percent expect this to be very important in this year’s presidential election. Among those who expect this to be very important, 69% trust Republicans more on the issue.
there is Partisan divide When asked whether inflation is important to the election, 74% of Republicans say inflation is likely to be a very important issue in the presidential election, as do 69% of independents, but only 43% of Democrats.
It’s probably a little Wishful thinking from the Democratic PartyThey understand that if inflation is very important in this year’s election, Donald Trump is more likely to win in November, so when asked by Rasmussen pollsters, they responded that they don’t think inflation is that important.
Rasmussen also asks voters how serious a problem they currently think inflation is, rather than what role it will play in the election. 82% said it was a serious problemOf those, 63 percent said this was a very serious problem.
There is also a partisan divide on this question: 78% of Republicans and 68% of independents say inflation is a very serious problem. Among DemocratsOnly 45% said it was very serious.
This may help explain why Republicans are trusted on the inflation issue, as partisan Democrats believe inflation is not as serious a problem. Assume Democratic officials are not as serious about fighting inflation As a policy goal, higher inflation is inevitable. Democrats have other priorities and are more likely to accept that trade-off if higher inflation is necessary to achieve their goals.
President Joe Biden signs the Inflation Control Act of 2022 in the State Dining Room at the White House on August 16, 2022. (Official White House Photo by Cameron Smith via Flickr)
Certainly, so did the Biden administration. adopted many policies that had inflationary effectsFrom climate change policies to the seemingly unlimited flow of funds to Russia’s war with Ukraine, to diversity equity and inclusion programs that stifle production, to massive deficit spending, the administration has described its Green New Deal spending plan as “Inflation Control Law“, revealing his lack of seriousness about the issue.
But Republicans shouldn’t think they’ll have an easy time until Election Day on the inflation issue. Inflation has calmed down considerably since it spiked earlier this year. Inflation is still very high — the Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year-over-year in May — but it’s calming down. Fed unlikely to cut rates in SeptemberThis could give the impression that inflation is no longer much of a threat.
