Leading independent political handicappers are tilting five key battleground states and one key district in favor of former President Trump, who faces President Biden in a rematch in 2024.
The change in rating by the highly respected Cook Report comes in the wake of Biden’s dismal performance in the head-to-head debate with President Trump two weeks ago, and follows new polling of the race between the two candidates.
Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Report, changed Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from “close” to “Leaning Republican,” Minnesota and New Hampshire from “Democrat-leaning” to “Leaning Democratic,” and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from “Strong” to “Leaning Democratic.” (Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that divide their electoral votes by districts.)
“The idea of a 50-50 presidential race was an overreach even before the debate,” Dave Wasserman, a longtime analyst at the Cook Report, argued in a social media post. “Trump now has a clear advantage over Biden, and a path to 270 electoral votes seems much more realistic.”
What battleground state voters are saying about Biden’s extremely tough debate performance
“Biden’s drop in approval ratings after the debate represents the biggest polling shift this year,” Wasserman said, with Biden beating the president 47% to 44%. Cook Report A new national polling average released early Wednesday: “Trump’s current approval ratings among black and Latino voters are inconsistent with any plausible Democratic victory scenario.”
New poll shows Trump ahead of Biden in this key battleground state
A series of national and key battleground state polls conducted across the board after the debate and released last week and this week contain a number of warning signs for Trump, including his widening single-digit lead over Biden and growing concern among Americans about whether Biden is up to the task of running the country.
He put in an extremely rough performance at the debate in Atlanta, Georgia on June 27th., Biden has been trying to prove he still has the stamina and acumen to handle the toughest, most demanding job in the world — and the fortitude to beat Trump.
President Biden and former President Trump will face off in a debate on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta. (Getty Images)
The debate was a major setback for Biden, who at 81 is the oldest president in U.S. history. His halting speech and halting answers in the Atlanta debate caused widespread panic within the Democratic Party, and calls, both public and private, for him to step down as 2024 presidential candidate grew within the party.
Biden tells Democrats calling for him to withdraw ‘will only help Trump and hurt us’
Since the debate, seven House Democrats have publicly called on Biden not to seek reelection, and a growing number of Democrats in both the House and Senate have warned publicly and privately that the president will lose to Trump in November.
But Biden has repeatedly stressed at rallies and fundraisers since the debate that he will continue to campaign.
In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent on Monday after returning from the July 4th holiday, the president reiterated his “determination to continue this campaign,” and insisted, “The question of how to proceed has been debated for over a week now and it is time to end it. We have one job: to defeat Donald Trump.”
President Biden spoke at a campaign rally in Madison, Wisconsin on July 5, 2024. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)
“Any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the agenda ahead will only help Trump and hurt us,” the president added. “Now is the time to come together, to move forward as a party and to defeat Donald Trump.”
Click here to get the FOX News app
In his analysis of the ratings shift, Walter wrote, “Many anxious lower-tier Democrats and donors are hoping that the Biden team, faced with worsening poll numbers and a fiercely hostile press corps, will grasp the gravity of the situation and gracefully announce that they are dropping out of the race. As of this writing, that seems unlikely.”
The Cook Report’s move marks the second major policy shift by a leading independent political handicapper in the wake of the debate.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Last week, Michigan changed from “Democrat-leaning” to “close race.” Additionally, Minnesota changed from “Democrat-leaning” to “Democrat-leaning.”
“President Biden’s poor debate performance has forced us to reexamine some of our assumptions about the race,” Sabato Crystal Ball forecaster Kyle Kondik wrote in explaining the two states’ ranking changes. “Michigan and Minnesota have both moved up into the more competitive category in our forecasts.”
Get the latest 2024 campaign updates, exclusive interviews and more on Fox News Digital’s Election Hub.
