After a week away from the cage, UFC returns to action with fight nights on Saturday in Denver.
In a more primetime-esque setup for UFC, the card will begin with prelims at 6pm ET on Saturday, with the entire card airing on ESPN.
The main card begins at 10pm ET.
There are 12 matches scheduled, with solid matches throughout.
At UFC 303, we missed the main event, foolishly betting on Jiri Prochazka versus the magical Alex Pereira.
But that losing bet doesn’t reflect the events of the night, which generated a profit of 3.2 units and a profit of 17.81 units over the past three UFC predictions articles.
Remember, tonight’s game is being played at altitude, and as the game progresses the players may develop serious heart problems.
UFC Denver Predictions
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
The main event will see “The Thug” Rose Namajunas take on Tracy Cortez in what could be a boring bout, but will likely be an interesting main event.
Namajunas has benefited from the best and worst of UFC’s moments, but she can’t stay in that world anymore.
She was one poor performance away from losing four of her last five fights, three of which were by decision.
The bout is widely predicted to end in a decision with odds of -210.
We’ve always talked about the decline in finish rates with the new UFC gloves, but the odds have certainly adjusted, even though all five bouts on the main card of UFC 303 ended in TKOs.
Cortes has now fought seven consecutive fights to the full rounds, while four of Namajunas’ last five fights have gone the full rounds.
It’s not pretty, but I think this is definitive and will be boring.
If you can find a bookmaker that will let you bet “to the end” on the under-total strike, you could win a decent amount on the contradictory parlay legs.
pick: The fight will continue to the end (-210, ESPN BET) | Total strikes under 238.5 (-120, Bet365)
Santiago Ponzinibbio versus Muslim Salikhov
Ponzinibbio has had multiple knee surgeries during his UFC career, which has forced him to overhaul his career multiple times.
Neither fighter has great chin strength or durability, but this fight has the feel of a sparring match between two old veterans.
Salkikhov has reached the third round in five of his last six fights, while Ponzinibbio has reached the third round in five consecutive fights and seven of his last eight fights.
We are betting that this match, which seems like the obvious side to bet on, will go all the way to the end.
choose: The fight will continue to the end (+120, Caesars)
Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski
This is the opening fight of the night and a bit of a bonus bet for us after betting on Andre Petroski to beat Jacob Markun by a large margin at +300.
Petroski was doing great in that bout until he bizarrely knocked himself out while attempting a takedown.
Petroski would likely beat Josh Fremd on anything other than cardio.
As mentioned earlier, this fight takes place at high altitude, which brings some concerns.
But Petroski is a Division I collegiate wrestler and a developing striker.
Fremd has poor takedown defense and isn’t a great striker.
I expect Petroski to take him down early, but if not, I’m sure he can take it to a decision in the first two rounds if he wants to.
choose: Petroski ML (-105, FanDuel)
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UFC Denver full card picks, odds
- Rose Namajunas (-200) vs. Tracy Cortez: Under 238.5 total strikes (-120, Bet365)
- Santiago Ponzinibbio (-185) vs. Muslim Salikhov: The fight will continue until the end (+120, Fanatics)
- Drew Dober (-110) vs. Jean Silva: Over 1.5 rounds (-120, FanDuel)
- Gabriel Bonfim (-340) vs. Ange Rosá: Rosá to win in the third round (25/1 Bet365)
- Julian Herosa (+170) vs. Christian Rodriguez: Herosa wins by submission (10/1 BetRivers)
- Abdul Razak Alhassan (-170) vs. Cody Brundage: Brundage ML (+142, Bet365)
- Joshua Vann (-230) vs. Charles Johnson: A fight that will go to a split decision (+275, DraftKings)
- Jasmine Yasdavičius (-125) vs. Fatima Klein: Klein ML (+105, BetMGM)
- Montel Jackson (-140) vs. Damon Blackshear: Blackshear ML (+124, DraftKings)
- Luana Santos (-395) vs. Mariya Agapova: Agapova wins by decision (+750, Caesars)
- Josh Fremd (-115) vs. Andre Petrosky: Petrosky ML (-105, BetRivers)
- Evan Elder (-410) vs. Darius Flowers: Pass
