The 2024 Home Run Derby will feature new faces and new rules.
There are five players who have never played in the tournament before, while Pete Alonso, the +310 favorite with BetMGM, is looking to win his third career title.
In the first round, instead of a pre-seeded head-to-head knockout format, all eight players will compete in a free-for-all, with the four with the highest total points advancing to the semi-finals. The remaining four players will be seeded based on the most home runs they have hit.
Previously, players were allowed to throw an unlimited number of pitches within the allotted time, but now they will be allowed three minutes or 40 pitches in the first two rounds, and two minutes or 27 pitches (whichever comes first) in the final.
Addressing these amendments is necessary as they will change the way we approach the most popular skill competition available for betting on professional sports.
Handicaps in the Home Run Derby are always a matter of chance because you really never know what’s going to happen in these special and unique circumstances. Knowledge of each player’s performance during the season and past experience in the Derby can give you an edge, but all things considered, oddsmakers are neck and neck with the betting public.
Let’s assess which batsmen carry an attractive price tag, as well as some long-ball props to consider.
Marcell Ozuna Wins Home Derby (Fanduel +380)
Marcell Ozuna is one of five rookies competing in the Derby, but the 32-year-old has plenty of experience as a major league slugger. Now in his 12th season, Ozuna is coming off a debut with 26 home runs, second-most among the eight players in the field, and is on pace to easily surpass his career-high of 40 in 2023.
The Braves left fielder ranks as one of the best pure contact hitters in baseball, ranking fourth overall in expected weighted on-base percentage, which quantifies a hitter’s exit ball velocity and angle without taking defense into account.
Ozuna has three multi-home run records and an average exit velocity of 93.2 mph, faster than any of his competition except Gunnar Henderson.
After Alonso, Ozuna has the second-lowest odds among the contestants, and while the odds have dropped since the lines opened, I still think he represents good value here.
Longest home run over 483.5 feet (DraftKings -112)
When the Rangers built Globe Life Field four years ago, they didn’t consider the benefits of a Home Run Derby when they designed the outfield distances to honor alumni and key years in the franchise’s history.
For right-handed power hitters, Arlington is a great place to be because the left field wall is 329 feet, significantly shorter than most other ballparks.
The last person to surpass 484 feet was reigning champion Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2023, when he recorded 488 feet. The record has been broken in every Derby since 2015 except for 2022.
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Total Home Runs Over 270.5 (FanDuel -113)
With that theme in mind, I expect the total number of hits batted in on Monday to be over.
Since MLB changed the Home Run Derby’s format from the traditional one-round, 10-out format, the event has recorded 271 or more home runs four of eight times, all of which have been consecutive years dating back to 2024.
Globe Life Stadium is an air-conditioned stadium with a retractable roof to help ballplayers move through the air, and sits 600 feet above sea level, making it one of the five highest stadiums in MLB.
The rule change may have taken away the opportunity to hit as many pitches as possible in the time available, but hitters will have to be more careful with their pitches in a ballpark where, as of this writing, there have been 116 home runs hit this season, fourth-most among all teams.
