This year’s British Open will be held on the par 71, 7,385-yard Old Course at Royal Troon in Scotland.
The course last hosted the British Open in 2016, when Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson played out an epic battle in extremely tough conditions.
A classic links course, Royal Troon is home to the longest hole in British Open history (the 623-yard sixth) and a famous postage stamp-sized hole (the 123-yard eighth).
As is often the case in the UK, the weather can have a big effect on scores.
Forecasters are calling for wind gusts of more than 20 mph on most days of the tournament.
Given the small size of the greens and the many issues with tee shots, the odds of hitting the greens in regulation are expected to be low.
This is not a course where golfers can show off their strengths off the tee.
If you stray too far off-line you’ll have to contend with several blind tee shots, numerous fairway bunkers, gorse bushes and tall fescue.
Royal Troon is a strategic course so overall driving ability and links experience are both key factors in my selection of a winner.
We also look at strokes gained approaches, scrambling, experience at the British Open and strokes gained per round in windy conditions.
Here are my best bets for this weekend:
Xander Schauffele (12/1, BetMGM)
Schauffele is coming off the best year of his career, already with 11 top 10 finishes and winning his first major championship (the PGA Championship) just a few months ago.
He’s among the best in all four strokes gained categories (off the tee, on approaches, around the green and putting) and doesn’t have the scars of Rory McIlroy, who missed out on three majors in recent years.
Schauffele has a strong track record on links courses, coming close to winning the British Open in 2018.
Since then, he has finished T41, T26, T15 and T17 in the event.
With major championship experience under his belt, he shouldn’t be intimidated if he finds himself in the running for the win on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1, DraftKings)
Hatton didn’t win on the PGA Tour last year, but he had one of the most consistent seasons of any golfer.
He joined LIV earlier this year and became somewhat of an afterthought for the casual golf fan.
But after finishing in the top 10 at the Masters and being in contention for the win at the U.S. Open, he had a poor day on Sunday and dropped to 26th place.
He has competed in two LIV events since then, winning one and taking third place in the other.
He has long been one of the best links players in the world, with three top 20 finishes at the British Open in the past four years.
He has the ability to be positive in all four strokes gained categories.
Do you bet on golf?
Hideki Matsuyama (50/1, BetMGM)
For each major tournament, I write an article on betting trends for the Action Network based on who won each tournament over the last 10 years.
This week, I discovered seven British Open trends, and only four golfers have ticked them all: Scottie Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele and Matsuyama, who won the Genesis Invitational earlier this year.
Matsuyama has one top 10 and four top 20 finishes at the British Open (tied for 13th last year), a recent top 10 in a major (tied for 6th at The Players Championship in March) and a second-place finish in the PGA Tour Scramble, which he expects to play a big role this week.
He missed the cut at the Scottish Open but improved his stroke gains from tee to green by 4.7 over the two rounds he played.
You can forgive him for having a terrible week on the greens (-4.8 strokes putting), but he’s played smartly this week and has very attractive odds in the outright markets.
