When the news broke that former President Trump had chosen Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, Western pundits and politicians reacted as if the end of U.S. aid to Ukraine was a fait accompli. One senior European Union official said: It’s called a pick American media reported on the incident as a “catastrophe.” title “God help Ukraine.”
Vance is undoubtedly the most vocal opponent of aid to Ukraine. He is committed to “America First” and is by all accounts very sensible. His selection as the Republican vice presidential nominee is an important corner of the broader mosaic that will likely emerge as the foreign policy of a second Trump administration.
But rather than lament, the wise course for Europe would be to strengthen its own defenses now and play its role within NATO.
Our European allies have improved their military capabilities, but they need to redouble their efforts. Today, 23 of NATO’s 32 member states We spend 2 percent of our gross domestic product on defense, a big improvement from just a few years ago, but that standard no longer meets the current situation.
Russia continues to advance in Ukraine. If Trump-Vance wins the November presidential election, there will likely be further demands on Europe from both the “Make America Great Again” wing of the Republican Party and the more traditional conservative internationalists within the GOP. Said “We will ensure that our allies share the burden of securing world peace,” he said at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee.
This would be a big deal: if key European allies were to actually deploy significant combat forces and spend at levels that would bear the brunt of military assistance to Ukraine (including including meaningful security guarantees), Donald Trump would be more likely to continue the balancing act that is a defining element of his approach to Ukraine, an approach he adopted during the spring 2024 debates on the situation in Ukraine. National Security SupplementTrump remained quiet, allowing a range of Republican voices a chance to express themselves before tacitly endorsing House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana)’s efforts to pass the bill.
In Trump’s second term, Vance will serve as a cabinet member alongside many of the national security hawks who played key roles in pushing the bill. Admitted “We’re pitching a big tent in the party on everything from national security to economic policy,” he told party members in Milwaukee.
This attempt to balance competing interests within the party is a hallmark of Trump politics, and if he wins a second term, it will be Trump who holds the reins of power.
Vance is certainly aware of this. As a Marine veteran of the Iraq War, he has Emphasized Trump’s decision to promote Senator Vance certainly makes him the favorite to lead the “Make America Great Again” movement beyond 2028. But as long as he is president, Trump will dominate the stage as the decider.
It’s no secret what advice Vance is giving to Trump. Just look at what Vance said. Here’s what he said at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024: Made headlines Having rocked the boat by casting doubt on the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine, Vance himself made clear he believes a strong Europe is in America’s best interest, and he prefaced his remarks with words of support. “I propose this not in a spirit of criticism, but in a spirit of friendship,” he said, “because I don’t believe we should withdraw from NATO, and I don’t believe we should abandon Europe.”
Vance also said the U.S. should pivot to Asia, suggesting that a successful European defense requires greater European involvement itself — a stance Europe must build on. Vance, like the man who elected him as the Republican nominee, believes European NATO members must do more to defend themselves. Two percent of GDP may have been enough when that pledge was first made at the 2014 NATO Wales summit. But in this era of Russian vengeance and Chinese military bravado, much more is needed.
For example, Germany has used up the extra 100 billion euros it set up days after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, so Berlin Sacrifice To maintain increased defense spending.
If the Trump-Vance duo wins, a review process of European policy will begin as the new national security team settles in the White House and finds its direction. Now is the time for Europe to build a military-friendly budget and chart the future course for Ukraine. Instead of lamenting the new administration coming into power in January, Europe should prepare to impress it.
Peter Ruff is a senior fellow and director of the Europe and Eurasia Center at the Hudson Institute.
