With the American League’s annual defeat of the National League in the All-Star Game over, it’s time to focus on the important aspects of the regular season. September isn’t even the financial part of the season yet, but the trade deadline is fast approaching and tensions are building. Here’s what to watch as the second half begins today:
Can Paul Skenes win the National League Cy Young Award?
You might be reading this and thinking, “Okay, let’s pump the brakes a little bit. That’s right, Paul Skenes. Electrical “Since being promoted, he’s been an expected starter in the All-Star Game, but he’s still a rookie.” That’s true. To find a rookie who has won a Cy Young Award, you have to go back to 1981, when Fernando Valenzuela and Fernandomania was rampant throughout the National League. It’s been 43 years since then, and no rookie has won a Cy Young award in either league since. That alone makes Skenes’ chances slim.
He’ll also have to face some very tough opponents, with Chris Sale fully healthy for the first time since 2019 and Atlanta Braves Sale is currently either alone or tied for the lead among NL starting pitchers in ERA (65), FIP (57) and xFIP (63) heading into the second half of this season. He also leads the NL in fWAR in the second half of the regular season. Additionally, Sale has somehow never won a Cy Young Award in his career. While you don’t want sentimentality or storytelling to be a factor, voters are human and will undoubtedly be thinking about it when it comes time to vote.
That’s not the only Braves pitcher Skenes will face. Reinaldo Lopez has been the surprise starter this season, and his strong first half has made him a dark horse for the championship. Skenes will also have to deal with two other threats from the NL East. Philadelphia Phillies‘The rotation. Zack Wheeler in particular is having a great season, and the Rangers’ Suarez has been just as dominant on the mound as Wheeler.
It will certainly be a difficult task for a young person. Pittsburgh Pirates It won’t be easy for an ace to beat these four pitchers and achieve historic success as a rookie to win the Cy Young Award, but Paul Skenes could very well do it. If we expand the National League starting pitchers from those who are eligible to just those who have thrown at least 60 innings, suddenly we see Paul Skenes as one of the best pitchers in 2024. Skenes is coming off a 46 ERA, 65 FIP, and 57 xFIP start to the second half of the season. These are incredible numbers for a rookie, and if Skenes can keep up this form, he’ll be a contender for the award. If he can stay healthy, Skenes definitely has a chance to make history and cap off what has been a great rookie season so far.
Who will win the American League East and West?
In terms of division races, the two coastal divisions in the junior circuit are currently the closest. The American League West has been pretty close in recent weeks, and the main reason for this is Seattle Mariners Instead of sweeping your feet, Houston Astros In fact, things are getting very tense in the American League West, as the FanGraphs playoff odds model indicates this race should be close all the way to the end.
The Mariners currently lead the division by just one game (they were up by 10 at one point) and are projected to finish 85-77 with a 48 percent chance of winning the division, while the Astros are projected to finish 86-76 with a 45 percent chance of winning the AL West. It may be easy to blame the Mariners for picking a bad time to go 8-15 (which is exactly what happened when they were up by 10 games), but The Astros should be given credit. For getting up off the mat after being knocked down earlier in the season.
So, it’s going to be a close battle in the West. What’s even more interesting is that we won’t have to wait long to see the showdown between these two teams. Seattle will be hosting Houston tonight to kick off the second half of the season. Julio Rodriguez and the rest of Seattle’s offense will have to work harder to have a chance to win the AL West again, but they’ll have a tough time against Houston’s trio of Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco. This should be an entertaining series in the West.
Meanwhile, things are heating up in the American League East. Aaron Judge and New York Yankees They’ve been in first place for most of this season, but have never trailed their East division rivals by more than three games. Baltimore Orioles The Yankees have been on the rise all season and have finally seen Gunnar Henderson’s Orioles overtake New York in the standings. The Yankees have struggled recently, going on an eight-game winning streak dating back to late May, while New York has gone 13-21 since the start of June and has fallen to second place since the streak was snapped.
Meanwhile, Baltimore has been a bit shaky in both directions since the start of June. The Orioles won six straight games to start the month, then lost five straight before quickly winning four straight to close out the month. The Orioles then went into the break with a five-game losing streak, but ended the streak with a win on the final Sunday before the break. They won three games in a row They’ll face the Yankees (who are one game behind in the division).
But the turmoil in New York and the instability in Baltimore meant Boston Red SoxAll-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran and the rest of the Red Sox roster sit just 4.5 games behind the division-leading Orioles and were recently given better than 50 percent odds to make the playoffs for the first time this season. If both Baltimore and New York continue to flounder, Boston could very well be the real favorite to pull off a major upset and win the Eastern Conference.
There’s still a lot of baseball left to play and the trade deadline hasn’t even come yet, but it wouldn’t be a total surprise if the race between these two goes all the way to the final day of the regular season in September.
How will each wild card race end?
While I personally am not a fan of sports expanding the postseason to 162 games like MLB has done, the expansion of the format achieved the goal of allowing more teams to remain competitive in the regular season. For example, Cincinnati Reds They are currently at 47-50, fourth in the National League Central Division and tied for seventh in the Wild Card position. A team with a record like this would have once meant heading to “Sellville” at the deadline, but now they are just three games out of the third and final Wild Card spot, and Ellie De La Cruz and the Reds could be real contenders for a postseason spot if they continue their strong form.
There are currently three teams in the National League:Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres They faced the Pittsburgh Pirates (within two games of the third wild card spot) 6 layers Teams with a 4 game lead or less (Reds, San Francisco Giants And last place (!!!) Chicago Cubs).it is 12 A team that still has a chance to make the postseason. The playoff odds may be bleak. National League Central Division Teams But as long as we’re still in the playoff zone in the actual standings, it’s better to stay and try to win it, right?
The American League doesn’t have a ton of contenders for the third wild card spot, but it still looks like it’s going to be a very interesting late game. Kansas City Royals Already acquired Trading surge By adding Hunter Harvey from the Nationals to the bullpen, Tampa Bay Rays We’ve already talked about the American League West and the state of the division, as they’ve been surviving at around .500% for the past few weeks. At this rate, one of the teams in the West is likely to clinch a wild card spot, but that doesn’t mean the battle for the division and postseason spots is going to be any more intense overall.
Simply put, everything is still up in the air when it comes to the wild cards in each league. Again, there are still plenty of games left to play and acquisitions yet to be finalized, so we can’t fully predict what’s going to happen in the future. What we do know is that it will definitely be fun to see how this all plays out. There’s a ton of things yet to be determined, from award discussions to actual playoff contention. It all starts tonight when baseball resumes. We’re looking forward to an exciting second half of the season.
