The unpopular president finds his path to reelection sealed. He is ousted and hands over power to the vice president he lost the party’s last nomination. His opponent is trying to ride the wave of public discontent to end a brutal war, but keeps his plan a secret.
This scenario draws on both the 1968 and 2024 elections. Add in Robert Kennedy and significant third-party support, and the similarities are eerie indeed. But more than that, 1968 offers both hope and warning for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
A dangerous road for Harris
Like Lyndon Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, Harris has proven to be an awkward politician on the national stage. And like Humphrey, she is shouldering an unpopular, defeated, and discredited Biden administration. While she has limited responsibility for the Biden campaign’s failures, there is no evidence that she opposed the president’s policies. But that hardly matters: the vice president is always held accountable for the actions of his boss.
Both Presidents Johnson and Biden were devastated by the possibility of defeat. President Johnson was in dire straits. 36 percent The approval rating on the eve of withdrawal was YouGov Benchmark A poll taken just days before Biden left office showed him with just 38 percent approval. There are no archival polls for the vice president, but it’s reasonable to assume Humphrey will track Johnson just as Harris has tracked Biden. In that regard, Harris had an approval rating of 39 percent in the last YouGov poll.
For Johnson, it was the Vietnam War that weighed on his shoulders, but for Biden, it’s inflation and immigration. On both issues, Biden fares miserably: 58% disapprove of inflation (63% among independents) and 59% disapprove of immigration (62% among independents). Inflation remains by far the top issue for voters, regardless of party affiliation. Immigration is the second most important issue, ranking first for Republicans and third for independents.
Under the Johnson administration,The credibility gap” has destroyed trust in the Oval Office. Similarly, Biden’s declining mental health, and the strong suspicion that his allies concealed it, have seriously undermined the credibility of the administration itself, and this issue will also cast a shadow over the Harris campaign.
Harris said:Relief Meeting” It remains to be seen whether her formal announcement will be respectable when Biden leaves the stage, but the reality will be clear in due course: without notable improvements on the key issues, Harris will be back to square one, with a clear disadvantage to Trump.
Trump: Coasting towards trouble
The parallels between Nixon in 1968 and Trump in 2024 are even more interesting.
Presumed dead after his defeat in the 1962 California gubernatorial election, Richard Nixon made one of the most astonishing comebacks in American presidential election history by winning the Republican nomination and dominating a fragmented Democratic Party.
But Nixon almost lost because he played it safe. He ran a run-of-the-mill campaign and, in a strange parallel with Trump,Secret PlanThis is similar to Trump’s enigmatic claim to “end the Vietnam War.” Ending the Ukrainian War.
But the Ukraine war is less salient than the Vietnam war. This election is inflation. But Trump has no plan. He just makes empty claims. In his own words From his nomination acceptance speech: “We’re going to end things!”
Trump is coasting like Nixon. Other than his promises to deport millions of illegal immigrants and take a tough stance, he’s got very little substance, so to speak. His specific promises to raise tariffs on China are inflationary. Trump has been coasting on Biden’s constant stream of bad news in recent months, and his team has been attacking Harris all along. It’s always wise to define your opponent, but it shouldn’t be your only strategy.
All of Trump’s rise in approval ratings is due to Biden’s mistakes and has nothing to do with anything Trump has done. From the Hamas war to inflation, immigration, debate chaos, and even the incompetence of the US Secret Service, Trump would not have been able to achieve anything without the mistakes of the Biden administration. Trump is ahead by existing, which is a flawed strategy in politics.
An ominous ending
The 1968 election was a very close victory for Nixon’s campaign, who had hoped for a landslide victory. In October, Humphrey finally broke with Johnson on Vietnam and took the plunge to end the war. 16 points down The numbers were nearly tied before Labor Day, and Nixon ended up winning by less than 1 percentage point.
He won, but playing it safe almost cost Nixon the presidency. Elected It was the lowest percentage since Woodrow Wilson in 1912.
Of course, it’s important not to stretch historical parallels too much: The war in Ukraine is a relatively minor issue compared with the Vietnam War that was the centerpiece of her campaign. Inflation is a danger facing Harris, and inflation is an impediment to peace talks. But it is true that Humphrey inherited a divided Democratic Party, whereas Harris has the backing of a unified party.
What’s in Harris’ favor is that she doesn’t have as big a lead as Humphrey. Voters have proven very stubborn about changing their preferences in this election, but Harris Rally Within her own party, there is relief that Biden has finally stepped aside.
But Harris certainly will have to prove she can handle being a top contender, something she hasn’t done so far. She’ll need to deliver strong speeches in her formal announcement and acceptance speeches. More importantly, she’ll have to break with Biden in a way that will appeal to independents and key middle-class voters who dislike both Trump and Biden.
The strange thing about this race is that Harris, despite her net disapproval rating, could win by rallying together voters who don’t dislike her. Polls show Harris with a 39% approval rating and 52% disapproval rating. RealClearPolitics Average If (as of this writing) Harris receives 48% of the vote, with 5% of that being dispersed to obstacle candidates, she could win.
Trump remains unpopular, with a disapproval rating of just over 53%. He is trying to win by inertia, aggression and a penchant for the past. Trump remains the favorite for now, but he is giving Harris a chance just as Nixon gave Humphrey a chance. The situation could easily be reversed, and Trump would have himself to blame.
Keith NortonHe is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.
