Despite Donald Trump maintaining his lead just a week after Biden dropped out of the presidential race, changing the course of the race, early polls are showing Vice President Kamala Harris holding a solid lead over Biden for now.
Indeed, while polling is limited because Harris was just crowned the Democratic nominee, polls conducted since Biden left office have shown her influence to be significant.
According to a recent CNN report:voteThe poll showed Harris leading Biden by three points in a hypothetical matchup with Trump, with Trump’s six-point lead over Biden in late June shrinking to just a three-point lead (49 percent to 46 percent) in the latest poll.
Harris, like any other candidate, was expected to have a honeymoon period — what Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio calls the “Harris honeymoon.”It is calledIt remains to be seen whether she can keep up this momentum once the honeymoon is over.
But for now, the CNN poll shows the Democratic field is reinvigorated, with Harris outperforming Biden nationally, in battleground states and among key voter groups.
Harris leads the former vice presidential candidate by nine points among independents, eight points among voters of color, and six points among voters under 35 and women.
The New York Times/SienavoteThey point to similar findings, namely that Harris has significantly stronger support among blacks, Hispanics and voters under 30 than Biden did before his withdrawal.
Moreover, not only does Harris appear to be winning back Democratic voters, but as CNN polls show, voters are more enthusiastic about supporting her than they are about supporting Biden.
When asked if they voted for Harris or if they did not vote for Trump, the split was evenly split 50-50. The split is significant: CNN reported in late June that more than six in ten (63%) of those who voted for Biden said they did not vote for Biden, but rather for Trump.
Additionally, Harris’ presence on the shortlist, or simply Biden’s absence, improves the situation for Democrats in key battleground states.
AnnEmersonA July 25 poll showed Harris leading Biden by five points in Georgia, four points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and three points in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Similarly, in an election where the side with the most support is likely to decide the outcome, any surge in momentum cannot be overlooked.
These numbers certainly suggest the enthusiasm gap is narrowing, and Harris is a breath of fresh air that the Democratic Party desperately needs, but Democrats must be careful not to get too enthusiastic.
In fact, according to an Emerson poll, Trump is leading Harris in four of the battleground states that will determine the election: Arizona (Trump +5), Georgia and Pennsylvania (Trump +2), and Michigan (Trump +1), while in Wisconsin they are tied at 47%.
Similarly, in the six polls released since Biden’s withdrawal, Trump is ahead in four, with an average lead of two points across the six.Real Clear Politics.
In other words, while these early polls suggest that Harris has garnered significant support nationally and among key voter groups, she still has a lot to prove. The last time she ran nationally, her candidacy ended before the first primary amid a disjointed campaign and a wave of recriminations.
Indeed, given how quickly Harris has risen to the top of the candidates, it’s fair to ask how much of her improved approval rating for Biden versus Trump is due to a general Democratic Party sense of relief and how much is due to genuine enthusiasm for her candidacy.
But one thing that cannot be denied is that Harris has energized a Democratic Party that has spent the last month fighting among itself over Biden’s candidacy.All-time highHarris has seen her fundraising success in her first 24 hours as the Democratic candidate, evidenced by the speed with which party leaders have rallied around her.
But polls suggest that most voters currently see Kamala Harris as a better candidate than Joe Biden.
Douglas E. Shawn is a political consultant and founder and partner of Shawn Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The end of democracy? The rise of Russia and China and the decline of the United States.“
